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Kamis, 06 Februari 2020

China halves tariffs on $75 billion worth of US goods, as coronavirus outbreak escalates - CNN

The move comes as China is grappling with the escalating coronavirus outbreak. The disease has killed 565 people, mostly in China, and infected more than 28,000 people in over 25 countries and territories.

The reduction affects US goods that China imposed tariffs on last September. Starting next week, China will cut the additional 10% tariff rate it enacted back then on some goods to 5%. Other goods that were taxed an extra 5% will now be levied 2.5%, according to a statement from China's State Council Tariff Commission.

The commission added that other tariffs on US goods will be maintained while it continues to work on exemptions.

Wuhan coronavirus deaths spike again as outbreak shows no signs of slowing

"China hopes that both sides will abide by bilateral agreements and make an effort to implement relevant provisions so that we can boost market confidence, promote bilateral trade relations and global economic growth," the statement said.

These tariff rollbacks had been widely expected and were a gesture in response to the United States cutting its September round of tariffs by half in the "phase one" trade deal, according Tommy Wu, an economist with Oxford Economics.

"Nevertheless, the announcement may help boost market sentiment, especially at a time when China is battling with the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak," he said.

Wu and other experts have warned that the coronavirus outbreak could dent China's economic growth this year and have knock-on effects for the global economy.

When the outbreak hit, Beijing took the extraordinary step of placing major cities on lockdown in order to contain it. The government also extended the Lunar New Year holiday, effectively bringing factories around the country to a standstill as workers have been ordered to stay home. Millions of people have pulled back on consumption, as they hunker down indoors and avoid public spaces.

Global shipping has been hit by the coronavirus. Now goods are getting stranded

Washington officials earlier this week said the outbreak could delay exports of US goods to China. Last month, Beijing had agreed to buy an additional $200 billion worth of products from the United States as part of a "phase one" trade deal.

"It is true the 'phase one' trade deal, the export boom from that trade deal, will take longer because of the Chinese virus," Larry Kudlow, US President Donald Trump's chief economic adviser, said in an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday.

Agricultural goods such as soybeans, pork, cotton and wheat had accounted for a big chunk of the new purchases.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue said the United States should be patient with China's ability to meet those trade pledges, given the coronavirus outbreak.

"If they're really trying and it really just blows the economy out of the water, then we would have to be understanding of that," Perdue said, according to Reuters.

Oxford Economics earlier this week cut its GDP forecast for China, saying that even with a rebound in the second quarter of this year, "we now forecast 5.4% growth for 2020, compared with 6% previously."

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2020-02-06 10:17:00Z
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China halves tariffs on $75 billion worth of US goods, as coronavirus outbreak escalates - CNN

The commission added that other tariffs on US goods will be maintained while it continues to work on exemptions.

"Nevertheless, the announcement may help boost market sentiment, especially at a time when China is battling with the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak," he said.

Wu and other experts have warned that the coronavirus outbreak could dent China's economic growth this year and have knock-on effects for the global economy.

Agricultural goods such as soybeans, pork, cotton and wheat had accounted for a big chunk of the new purchases.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue said the United States should be patient with China's ability to meet those trade pledges, given the coronavirus outbreak.

"If they're really trying and it really just blows the economy out of the water, then we would have to be understanding of that," Perdue said, according to Reuters.

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Rabu, 05 Februari 2020

Macy's tries to convince Wall Street that America still needs department stores - CNBC

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Macy's is making the case to investors that it is still "America's department store."

As the embattled retailer aims to get back to profitability and sales growth, it is meeting with investors Wednesday in New York to rally support for its turnaround plans. Among the key points it is making are that shoppers still go to malls, and that a department store chain can still offer customers something unique that they can't just buy on Amazon.

To get back to growth, Macy's is focusing on three pillars: Its role as a fashion destination, its role in providing value to shoppers and its role in celebrating America, CEO Jeff Gennette said, hinting at Macy's events like its Thanksgiving Day parade.

A key test of this plan, however, will be if Macy's can reach younger customers, as their spending power only grows.

"Macy's needs to quickly re-capture lapsed customers and connect with new [and] younger shoppers before it's too late," Gordon Haskett analyst Chuck Grom said.

Department stores over the years have gained a sour reputation. Sales have lagged behind other types of retailers such as T.J. Maxx and Target, as traffic at weaker malls has dropped off, and companies like Sears and Bon-Ton have filed for bankruptcy.

"We are stepping up to redefine what a department store can and should be," Gennette said during the investor meeting at the New York Stock Exchange.

Late Tuesday, Macy's announced a major restructuring, in which it plans to shut 125 stores over the next three years, cut 9% of its corporate workforce and close some offices in Cincinnati and San Francisco. The steps Macy's is taking are expected to generate about $1.5 billion in annual savings, which will be fully realized by the end of fiscal 2022, and partially reinvested back into its growth initiatives.

Macy's is still, however, forecasting same-store sales, on an owned plus licensed basis, to be down 1% to flat three years from now, in fiscal 2022.

"We have some legacy challenges," Gennette told investors, explaining that the company grew so large because of a series of acquisitions of smaller chains. "But we do have a lot on our side."

Macy's said it has a plan to gain and retain more customers under 40 years old, where it knows it still has work to do.

Shoppers under 40 have told Macy's that the retailer's private brands "are too old for her," said Patti Ongman, Macy's chief merchandising officer. She said Macy's is working on two new apparel labels to fix that.

Macy's shares were last up more than 3%. The stock has fallen about 35% over the past 12 months. Macy's has a market cap of about $5.2 billion.

— CNBC's Courtney Reagan contributed to this reporting.

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2020-02-05 14:28:00Z
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Dow futures point to 3rd day of gains amid upbeat data, optimism around coronavirus treatments - MarketWatch

U.S. stock-index futures on Wednesday pointed to a third consecutive day of gains, as Wall Street attempts to cure a selloff sparked in part by an Asian influenza that has killed hundreds and infected tens of thousands in China.

How are stock benchmarks faring?

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average YMH20, +0.80% were up 258 points, or 0.9%, at 29,047, those for the S&P 500 index ESH20, +0.81% were rising 27.50 points, or 0.8%, at 3,327, and Nasdaq-100 futures NQH20, +1.03% advanced 101 points, or 1.1%, to 9,455.75.

On Tuesday, the Dow DJIA, +1.44% rose 407.82 points, or 1.4%, to finish at 28,807.6, the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.50% gained 48.67 points, or 1.5%, to end at 3,297.59. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +2.10% advanced 194.57 points, or 2.1%, to close at a record 9,467.97, surpassing its previous closing high on Jan. 23.

All three major benchmarks took back the ground lost during Friday’s coronavirus-related rout.

What’s driving the market?

The market’s bullish complexion on Wednesday was being partly attributed to unverified reports of treatments that could be effective against the Wuhan virus that has stricken China and spread to other parts of the globe. Sky News reported on Wednesday that U.K. researchers had made progress in lab tests toward a vaccine for the virus that has been likened to SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome. Separately, a research team at Zhejiang University claimed to identify a cocktail of drugs, namely Abidol and Darunavir, that has thus far proven effective at stanching the virus in infected patients. A separate report from China’s media pointed to a combination of Lopinavir and Ritonavir as an effective treatment.

The World Health Organization has said that there are “no known effective therapeutics” against the virus, in response to the media reports.

The number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus rose above 24,000, as of Tuesday, and Hong Kong reported its first death from the virus, which has claimed 492 lives, the Wall Street Journal reported.

An apparent easing of anxieties around the viral outbreak, which is still feared to deliver a hit to growth in China, has helped Wall Street investors focus on corporate quarterly results, which have thus far been upbeat. A batch of earnings are still rolling out this week.

With a little less than half of the S&P 500 companies reporting, the blended earnings growth rate shows a 0.14% rise, compared against a 2.0% decline expected at the start of earnings season, according to FactSet.

Moves in the market also come after President Donald Trump on Tuesday delivered his third State of the Union address, which painted an optimistic picture of the country’s future and touted the strength of the economy under his tenure.

A report on private-sector employment from Automatic Data Processing Inc. blew past economists’ consensus estimates, showing that 291,000 jobs were added in January, nearly double the consensus estimate of 154,000.

ADP’s data were “robust and they confirmed Trump’s narrative of ‘blazing economy,’” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst for Avatrade. “The data soared the bearish bets on gold. It confirmed that the economy is not suffering. In order words, the risk-on trade is going to stay a little longer in this market. Having said that traders are going to continue to scrutinize the upcoming data until the 9more closely followed reading of jobs on Friday from the Labor Department.)”

Separately, a report on international trade showed that the U.S. trade deficit fell in 2019 for the first time in six years, reflecting reduced imports from China due to tariffs, with a 1.7% decline to $616.8 billion in December.

Which stocks are in focus?

Shares Merck & Co. Inc. MRK, +1.17% said it was spinning off its Women’s Health, Trusted Legacy Brands and Biosimilar Products businesses as it reported results.
Capri Holdings Ltd. shares CPRI, +3.15% rose in Wednesday premarket trading after the luxury fashion house reported fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat expectations.
Humana Inc. HUM, +2.90% reported fourth-quarter profit and revenue that beat expectations, sending its shares higher.
Streaming-music service Spotify Technology SPOT, +5.33% said it swung to a €209 million ($230 million) loss, or €1.14 a share, while revenue rose.
EBay Inc.’s shares EBAY, +8.78% rose before the bell as the Journal reported that New York Stock Exchange-parent Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ICE, -7.45% approached the e-commerce company multiple times regarding a takeover.
Macy’s Inc. said it plans to close 125 department stores over the next three years.
Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD, +1.57% cut its outlook as the drugmaker reported results late Tuesday.
Coty Inc. shares COTY, +0.76% jump after earnings beat and upbeat guidance.
Tesla Inc. shares TSLA, +13.73% were sliding lower before the bell after an analyst downgrade.

How are other markets trading?

Government bond yields continued to climb, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +3.07% rising about 5 basis points to 1.65%, a day after its biggest one-day gain since Dec. 12, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Oil prices jumped, a day after adding to losses that put the contract at its lowest settlement in more than a year. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery CLH20, +2.58% rose 2.8% to $50.99. In precious metals, the price of an ounce of gold for April delivery GCJ20, +0.17% picked up $1.00, or 0.1% $1,556.50, following its lowest close since Jan. 22.

The U.S. dollar DXY, +0.23% rose 0.1% at 98.07 relative to a basket of six major peers.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, +1.36% was headed 1.2% higher.

In Asia overnight Wednesday, stocks rose significantly. The China CSI 300 000300, +1.13% added 1.1%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 NIK, +1.02% rose 1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, +0.42% advanced 0.4%.

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2020-02-05 13:40:00Z
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GM to pay UAW workers $8,000 in profit sharing - Detroit Free Press

Jamie L. LaReau Detroit Free Press

Published 8:17 AM EST Feb 5, 2020

About 47,000 U.S. hourly workers at General Motors will receive a profit-sharing check of $8,000 as the automaker reported a considerable hit to its annual and quarterly profits from the 40-day nationwide strike late last year.

The before-taxes payout that GM announced Wednesday for its UAW-represented workforce is down from $10,750 in 2018.

For the fourth quarter, GM said the strike impact cost it $2.6 billion in pretax profits. For the full year, the strike dinged GM's pretax profits by $3.6 billion.

The GM negotiated formula with the UAW for profit-sharing checks is $1,000 per every $1 billion in GM's North America earnings before interest and taxes.

For 2019, GM's North American pretax profit was $8.2 billion, down from $10.8 billion in 2018, it said in its earnings release. GM's results took a hit in the fourth quarter because of the six-week UAW strike and weak sales in China amid a slumping economy.

But for 2020, GM said it's well-positioned with new vehicle launches. lean inventory and ongoing cost savings to deliver good results. GM said it expects to sell about 16.5 million vehicles in the United States this year.

"We continue to transform the company for the future," said CEO Mary Barra in a statement. "GM is positioned for strong, long-term business results with a focus on sustainability, and we are confident that our (electric vehicle) and (autonomous vehicle) strategies will drive shareholder value while improving the environment."

Globally, GM reported that it made $100 million in pretax profits in the quarter, down 96.3% largely due to the strike. For the year, GM made $6.7 billion, down 17.4%.

GM's annual global revenue was $137.2 billion compared to $147 billion for 2018. For the fourth quarter, revenue was $30.8 billion, down 19.7% from the year-ago period.

For the quarter, GM's net income was $6.7 billion, up from $2.1 billion compared to the year-ago period.

Profit sharing

Like GM, Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles also pay hourly workers an annual profit-sharing check based on the same formula. On Tuesday, Ford said its profit-sharing checks would amount to $6,600 on average for a majority of the company's 56,000 hourly UAW workers. FCA reports its results Thursday, but last year its union workers received an average of about $6,000 in profit-sharing checks before taxes.

Despite the smaller profit-sharing checks this year, it’s still a generous incentive and important for the company and the workforce in terms of motivating workers and attracting talent, said Adam Robinson, CEO of Hireology, a Chicago-based recruitment platform used by many car dealerships.

“Most importantly, the interest of the workforce and the interest of management are aligned,” said Robinson. “They are rewarded by a bottom-line results so workers and management must work together to achieve that.”

For the automaker, the program also helps attract high-quality talent to hire because “it’s all about the presentation of the program,” said Robinson.

“If I’m talking to a potential hire and I’m competing with other employers — I can say that you come here, you participate in the outcome because we have a generous profit sharing,” said Robinson. “It will make a difference in competing for talent.”

GM's Sales

Overall, the auto industry had a good year due to the robust economy, low unemployment, and low interest rates, said David Kudla, CEO of Mainstay Capital Management.

"And, consumers are buying up profitable SUVs, trucks, and crossovers, upping the average transaction price to record levels."

Also, around this time last year, GM reduced its North American white-collar workforce by about 8,000 total jobs between voluntary buyouts and cutting about 4,000 of of those salaried jobs. It also closed Lordstown Assembly plant in Ohio, Warren Transmission and Baltimore Transmission plants.

GM said that restructuring would increase its 2019 free cash flow to $4.5 billion to $6 billion. In its 2020 guidance, GM estimates its free cash flow will be $6 billion to $7.5 billion, it said.

More: GM factory workers get $10,750 in profit sharing; company earnings slip

More: Delta Air Lines, UAW workers to get big bonuses in February

More: UAW-GM deal calls for raises, $11K ratification bonus, Lordstown closure, pathway for temps

"We expect another strong year in 2020," said Dhivya Suryadevara, GM's CFO. "Our relentless focus on improving our operating performance will enable us to generate strong cash flow through the cycle and invest in our future."

GM China weathered a softening market. It reported equity income of $1.1 billion for 2019, down from $2 billion last year. For the quarter, Cadillac sold 53,000 vehicles in China, down from 58,000 last year. For the year, Cadillac sales were 214,000 up from 213,000.

GM Financial reported full-year record revenue of $14.6 billion, with pretax adjusted income of $2.1 billion, up from $1.9 billion last year.

GM said it sold 7.7 million vehicles globally, down from 8.4 million vehicles sold in 2018 largely due to the slump in China.

Contact Jamie L. LaReau at 313-222-2149 or jlareau@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter @jlareauan. Read more on General Motors and sign up for our autos newsletter.

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2020-02-05 13:01:00Z
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The market’s trading like it’s the end of the cycle, and here’s how an analyst says to position for it - MarketWatch

Tesla is TSLA, +13.73% parabolic. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +2.05%, even before the coronavirus outbreak, couldn’t top 2%, and the yield curve even when it isn’t inverted has been very flat.

Commercial construction has tapered off. Vehicle sales have peaked. Banks plan to tighten lending standards at the same time as they expect a flattening of demand, according to a survey released this week. Even those loss-making initial public offerings, or near IPOs in the case of real-estate company WeWork, are starting to run a tighter ship.

Over two years, zero-coupon Treasurys EDV, -2.01% have produced nearly double the return of the S&P 500 SPY, +1.52%.

“It is the type of stuff you see at the end of credit and economic cycles,” says Mike Larson, senior analyst at Weiss Ratings. “I am concerned about the durability of this market and economic expansion.” He is dismissive of the three interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, calling them both too late and too timid to make a major difference, though he concedes the housing market has stabilized in response.

Larson says over two years, “boring” stocks like utilities, real-estate investment trusts and consumer staples have done well, and in the call of the day he expects those sectors to continue to perform, even if they are overbought in the short term. Larson says these sectors offer high dividend yields and protection from economic weakness—even if talking about utilities may put you to sleep.

He also likes precious metals, including gold GC00, +0.14% and silver SI00, +0.14%. “Metals sat out most of the bull market, there’s catch-up potential there,” he says.

The buzz

Traders took an optimistic view toward the coronavirus, which has killed 494 as of Thursday morning from nearly 25,000 confirmed cases, on reports from China and the U.K. on progress toward treating it. A World Health Organization spokesman said there’s no known therapeutics so far against the virus.

If you missed the State of the Union—U.S. President Donald Trump didn’t shake House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s hand, Pelosi tore up the speech, and cancer-stricken radio-talk-show host Rush Limbaugh received the Presidential Medal of Freedom (the nation’s highest civilian honor). The speech itself focused on the economy and recent trade agreements. Trump is expected to be cleared by the Senate of impeachment on Wednesday.

Earnings season continues with 16 S&P 500 firms reporting results. Late on Tuesday, mass media conglomerate Walt Disney DIS, +2.41% exceeded forecasts on subscriber growth for its streaming service, while car maker Ford Motor Company F, +2.23% missed expectations as volumes fell and costs rose.

The economics calendar features the ADP private-sector jobs report as well as the nonmanufacturing index by the Institute for Supply Management.

The markets

It was full risk-on mode for markets—U.S. stock futures ES00, +0.75% rallied, and crude-oil CL.1, +2.38% and copper HG00, +1.95% futures gained.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose 2 basis points.

Asian ADOW, +0.72% and European SXXP, +1.17% stocks rose.

Random reads

A man stood up on board a flight from Toronto to Jamaica and said that he had coronavirus, forcing the plane to turn around. He didn’t and was arrested.

Actress and television host Whoopi Goldberg is out of the cannabis business.

A crime was solved using DNA profiling—on a cow.

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2020-02-05 11:59:00Z
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'The punch bowl has been aggressively spiked': $1 billion asset manager sounds the alarm after Tesla's 30.. - Business Insider

Elon Musk REUTERS/Mike Blake

Tesla's stock soaring 300% in six months shows markets are messed up, VGI Partners says.
"When a market cap of that size can go hyperbolic in a short period of time for no real reason, it is certainly symptomatic of an environment that is not normal."
However, the asset manager hasn't shorted Tesla stock because of its huge potential customer base and its "billionaire genius" CEO, Elon Musk.
VGI hasn't bought shares either as the electric carmaker faces intense competition and an uncertain future.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

Tesla's stock has skyrocketed more than 300% in six months, boosting the electric carmaker's market capitalization to about $160 billion.

The astronomical rally is a sign that markets are messed up, according to VGI Partners Global Investments, an Australia-based asset manager with nearly $1 billion invested across stocks such as Amazon, Spotify, and Mastercard.

"Do I think that this is an indication of euphoria or an indicator of a party where the punch bowl has been aggressively spiked later in the night?" Robert Luciano, VGI's portfolio manager, asked rhetorically on an earnings call this week.

"It certainly feels like it," he continued. "When a market cap of that size can go hyperbolic in a short period of time for no real reason, it is certainly symptomatic of an environment that is not normal."

Luciano may be skeptical of Tesla's rally, but he's wary of betting against a company with a huge number of potential customers and a super-rich, brainiac CEO in Elon Musk.

"Tesla has multiple total addressable markets and it's founded and managed by a billionaire genius," Luciano said. "We find that a highly difficult combination to short."

He added that the multiple strands of Tesla's business — electric vehicles, energy storage, solar panels — mean it could also be considered a "platform business" that is "highly scalable."

However, Luciano explained why VGI doesn't own any Tesla shares either.

"At various points in time, the mathematics and the outlook for the business has made little sense to us," he said. Fierce competition in electric vehicles and Tesla's other business areas poses another risk, he added.

Tesla's stock surge has boosted Musk's net worth by nearly $18 billion this year, vaulting him into the 20 wealthiest people in the world, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

The polarizing executive has been celebrating the run up, despite using a Warren Buffett analogy to dismiss the stock price as a "distraction" last year.

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2020-02-05 11:15:32Z
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