Selasa, 04 Februari 2020

Why the Dow is rallying more than 400 points in middle of a global health crisis - CNN

It's an abrupt turnaround for markets. Stocks had sold off sharply last week amid worries about the economic impact of the virus. But stocks began to retrace their sharp losses on Monday.
The Dow (INDU) was up 450 points or 1.6% in late morning trading. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) was up 1.7%.
And the rally isn't just confined to US markets: global equities are all in the green, and even Chinese markets, which recorded their worst day in years Monday, bounced back.
But the global coronavirus is still not over. So what's behind the excitement?

Chinese stimulus

The People's Bank of China stepped in this week by injecting billions of yuan to prop up the stock market.
And there might be more: China has helped its markets out in times of trouble before. Back in 2015, when the country's stock bubble burst, authorities lent billions to brokerage firms to encourage stock buying.
The historical evidence that China is willing to help its markets and economy soothed investors around the world.
"The underlying market hope is clear: central banks will save us, not just from the business cycle, and not just from climate change, but now from global pandemic too," wrote Michael Every, senior Asia-Pacific strategist at Rabobank.
China is the world's second-largest economy and is considered the engine for the global economic growth. With a central bank willing to lend a hand, the repercussions from the outbreak could be much more manageable.

Containment

The coronavirus has now infected more than 20,000 people and claimed more than 400 lives, but the rate of new infections appears to have slowed down.
"Public health activities and awareness are key drivers," said Bespoke Investment Group Co-Founder Justin Walters.
Quarantine measures and travel restrictions -- imposed by both governments and companies -- seem to be doing the trick.

Solid economic fundamentals

While the outbreak has been raging, economic fundamentals have remained solid for the United States.
On Monday, the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing PMI beat expectations and showed the first expansion for the sector since July.
US factory orders for December also beat expectations on Tuesday, rising 1.8%, compared with the consensus estimate of 1.2%.
Friday's jobs report is expected to be yet another strong showing for America's labor market, including an unemployment rate around the 50-year low of 3.5%.
With an unemployment rate this low and wages ticking higher, American consumers, who are the backbone of the economy, are strong.
On top of all this, a solid earnings season for American companies also provides a positive backdrop for the market.

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2020-02-04 16:22:00Z
52780590434738

Tesla Stock Jumped 20%. It Makes No Sense. - Barron's

Tesla shares rose almost 20% Monday, hitting another all-time high. The question is why? The move, frankly, baffled investment pros.

Few dispute things are looking up for the electric vehicle pioneer, but few understand the magnitude and persistence of the rally. The pros, however, offered a few ideas when asked. And some even guessed what could be next for shares.

But...

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2020-02-04 15:02:00Z
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Why the Dow is rallying more than 400 points in middle of a global health crisis - CNN

It's an abrupt turnaround for markets. Stocks had sold off sharply last week amid worries about the economic impact of the virus. But stocks began to retrace their sharp losses on Monday.
The Dow (INDU) was up 450 points or 1.6% in late morning trading. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) was up 1.7%.
And the rally isn't just confined to US markets: global equities are all in the green, and even Chinese markets, which recorded their worst day in years Monday, bounced back.
But the global coronavirus is still not over. So what's behind the excitement?

Chinese stimulus

The People's Bank of China stepped in this week by injecting billions of yuan to prop up the stock market.
And there might be more: China has helped its markets out in times of trouble before. Back in 2015, when the country's stock bubble burst, authorities lent billions to brokerage firms to encourage stock buying.
The historical evidence that China is willing to help its markets and economy soothed investors around the world.
"The underlying market hope is clear: central banks will save us, not just from the business cycle, and not just from climate change, but now from global pandemic too," wrote Michael Every, senior Asia-Pacific strategist at Rabobank.
China is the world's second-largest economy and is considered the engine for the global economic growth. With a central bank willing to lend a hand, the repercussions from the outbreak could be much more manageable.

Containment

The coronavirus has now infected more than 20,000 people and claimed more than 400 lives, but the rate of new infections appears to have slowed down.
"Public health activities and awareness are key drivers," said Bespoke Investment Group Co-Founder Justin Walters.
Quarantine measures and travel restrictions -- imposed by both governments and companies -- seem to be doing the trick.

Solid economic fundamentals

While the outbreak has been raging, economic fundamentals have remained solid for the United States.
On Monday, the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing PMI beat expectations and showed the first expansion for the sector since July.
US factory orders for December also beat expectations on Tuesday, rising 1.8%, compared with the consensus estimate of 1.2%.
Friday's jobs report is expected to be yet another strong showing for America's labor market, including an unemployment rate around the 50-year low of 3.5%.
With an unemployment rate this low and wages ticking higher, American consumers, who are the backbone of the economy, are strong.
On top of all this, a solid earnings season for American companies also provides a positive backdrop for the market.

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2020-02-04 16:09:00Z
52780590434738

Tesla's stock soars above $900, boosts value of Elon Musk's stake by $6 billion - MarketWatch

Shares of Tesla Inc. TSLA, +12.93% gapped higher on heavy volume at the open Tuesday, rising as much as 20.5% to a fresh all-time high of $939.92 in early trading before paring some gains. The stock was now up 19.9%, and has more than doubled (up 123.5%) this year--the S&P 500 SPX, +1.40% has gained 2.0% year to date--and has nearly tripled (up 194.5%) over the past three months. The rally has added billions to Chief Executive Elon Musk kitty. The latest 13G filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission in February showed that Musk owned 38,572,790 Tesla shares, making him by far the largest shareholder with a 21.7% stake. That means the value of Musk's stake has increased by $5.98 billion just on Tuesday, and by $14.54 billion over the past six days, in which the stock has soared 67.6%.

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2020-02-04 14:57:00Z
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Why hedge fund manager Dan Loeb is staying ‘wary’ of this too-perfect market - MarketWatch

It has been a wild night in Iowa, and the coronavirus death toll is not slowing.

But stock markets are ready to rip higher, led by Chinese equities, as optimism over that big cash injection by the People’s Bank of China and upbeat U.S. data on Monday are carrying over.

Neil Wilson, Markets.com’s chief market analyst, says if markets get through the rest of the week without a big escalation in Europe or U.S. coronavirus cases, then stocks will be in fighting mode — with the Dow DJIA, +1.53%  reaching for 29,000 and the S&P 500 SPX, +1.40%  aiming at 3,300.

“We are entering a key phase of the outbreak now in terms of how we measure the economic damage and whether it produces a material reduction in equity valuations,” Wilson tells clients.

Meanwhile, politics is grabbing attention this morning as Iowa’s Democratic presidential caucuses — the party’s first nominating contest for the 2020 election — turned into a hot mess after problems with a mobile app.

Onto our call of the day, which checks in with what’s on the worry list at hedge fund Third Point LLC and manager Dan Loeb from the recently released fourth-quarter newsletter.

Loeb lays out what could change the bullish mood for stocks, which has been driven by friendly monetary conditions and a benign economic backdrop.

“We are wary of many factors that can possibly upset the current Goldilocks environment, chief among them the further spread of the coronavirus, derailment of further Chinese trade negotiations, a political upset from the far left in the U.S. Presidential election, or further escalation of tensions in the Middle East,” Loeb says.

The hedge fund has one more concern: “The Fed has said it would be patiently waiting for inflation to overshoot, which makes the current case for equities compelling, but a sudden turn in inflation could lead to a backup in rates and cause market pain.”

As for that potential political upset, a far-left candidate likely refers to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren or Vermont’s Bernie Sanders, who has been leading in the polls. Some analysts have said investors aren’t thinking enough about a possible Sanders win.

Read Third Point’s full thoughts here.

The market

Dow DJIA, +1.53%, S&P SPX, +1.40%  and Nasdaq COMP, +1.43% futures are climbing, alongside European stocks SXXP, +1.35% and oil prices CL00, +1.32%. Setting things off, Chinese stocks 000300, +2.64% rose 2.6%.

That is as China’s coronavirus cases topped 20,000, with 427 dead and Hong Kong reporting its first death as the country shut most of its borders and healthcare workers went on strike.

The chart

Wynn Resorts WYNN, +2.50%  is tumbling in premarket. That’s after officials in Macau, known as the Las Vegas of Asia, reportedly told casinos to shut for two weeks to contain the spread of coronavirus.

The buzz

Shares of Google parent Alphabet GOOGL, -3.58% GOOG, -3.57%  are down after revenue disappointed — company also broke out cloud and YouTube revenue.

Household products maker Clorox CLX, +4.56%, energy group ConocoPhillips COP, -0.78%  and cruise operator Royal Caribbean RCL, +2.64% are reporting. After the close, we’ll hear from biotech Gilead Sciences GILD, +1.13%, Ford Motor F, +1.73% F, +1.73%, Disney DIS, +1.86%, Snapchat parent Snap SNAP, +1.04%  and fast-food chain Chipotle CMG, +2.09%.

Shares of electric-car maker Tesla TSLA, +17.86%  are up again in premarket after a 20% rally on Monday.

Random reads

KC Chiefs player Derrick Nnadi celebrates Super Bowl win by picking up adoption fees for shelter dogs

Botswana will auction off rights to hunt elephants after lifting a ban last year

Sad and getting sadder — pop songs

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

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2020-02-04 14:00:00Z
CAIiEIt_kO3aF3PUajFUxBwDzWYqGAgEKg8IACoHCAowjujJATDXzBUwiJS0AQ

Why hedge fund manager Dan Loeb is staying ‘wary’ of this too-perfect market - MarketWatch

It has been a wild night in Iowa, and the coronavirus death toll is not slowing.

But stock markets are ready to rip higher, led by Chinese equities, as optimism over that big cash injection by the People’s Bank of China and upbeat U.S. data on Monday are carrying over.

Neil Wilson, Markets.com’s chief market analyst, says if markets get through the rest of the week without a big escalation in Europe or U.S. coronavirus cases, then stocks will be in fighting mode — with the Dow DJIA, +0.51%  reaching for 29,000 and the S&P 500 SPX, +0.73%  aiming at 3,300.

“We are entering a key phase of the outbreak now in terms of how we measure the economic damage and whether it produces a material reduction in equity valuations,” Wilson tells clients.

Meanwhile, politics is grabbing attention this morning as Iowa’s Democratic presidential caucuses — the party’s first nominating contest for the 2020 election — turned into a hot mess after problems with a mobile app.

Onto our call of the day, which checks in with what’s on the worry list at hedge fund Third Point LLC and manager Dan Loeb from the recently released fourth-quarter newsletter.

Loeb lays out what could change the bullish mood for stocks, which has been driven by friendly monetary conditions and a benign economic backdrop.

“We are wary of many factors that can possibly upset the current Goldilocks environment, chief among them the further spread of the coronavirus, derailment of further Chinese trade negotiations, a political upset from the far left in the U.S. Presidential election, or further escalation of tensions in the Middle East,” Loeb says.

The hedge fund has one more concern: “The Fed has said it would be patiently waiting for inflation to overshoot, which makes the current case for equities compelling, but a sudden turn in inflation could lead to a backup in rates and cause market pain.”

As for that potential political upset, a far-left candidate likely refers to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren or Vermont’s Bernie Sanders, who has been leading in the polls. Some analysts have said investors aren’t thinking enough about a possible Sanders win.

Read Third Point’s full thoughts here.

The market

Dow DJIA, +0.51%, S&P SPX, +0.73%  and Nasdaq COMP, +1.34% futures are climbing, alongside European stocks SXXP, +1.45% and oil prices CL00, +1.58%. Setting things off, Chinese stocks 000300, +2.64% rose 2.6%.

That is as China’s coronavirus cases topped 20,000, with 427 dead and Hong Kong reporting its first death as the country shut most of its borders and healthcare workers went on strike.

The chart

Wynn Resorts WYNN, +1.92%  is tumbling in premarket. That’s after officials in Macau, known as the Las Vegas of Asia, reportedly told casinos to shut for two weeks to contain the spread of coronavirus.

The buzz

Shares of Google parent Alphabet GOOGL, +3.48% GOOG, +3.61%  are down after revenue disappointed — company also broke out cloud and YouTube revenue.

Household products maker Clorox CLX, -0.93%, energy group ConocoPhillips COP, -0.42%  and cruise operator Royal Caribbean RCL, -0.54% are reporting. After the close, we’ll hear from biotech Gilead Sciences GILD, +5.00%, Ford Motor F, +1.81% F, +1.81%, Disney DIS, +2.18%, Snapchat parent Snap SNAP, -0.82%  and fast-food chain Chipotle CMG, +0.07%.

Shares of electric-car maker Tesla TSLA, +19.89%  are up again in premarket after a 20% rally on Monday.

Random reads

KC Chiefs player Derrick Nnadi celebrates Super Bowl win by picking up adoption fees for shelter dogs

Botswana will auction off rights to hunt elephants after lifting a ban last year

Sad and getting sadder — pop songs

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

Follow MarketWatch on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook.

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2020-02-04 13:29:00Z
CAIiEIt_kO3aF3PUajFUxBwDzWYqGAgEKg8IACoHCAowjujJATDXzBUwiJS0AQ

5 things to know before the stock market opens Tuesday - CNBC

1. Dow to open nearly 400 points higher

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange, January 14, 2020.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

U.S. stock futures were pointing to a nearly 400 point gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average at Wall Street's open Tuesday. The Dow had been up 350 points at one stage on Monday but closed 143 points higher. Tuesday's indicated gains coupled with Monday's advance would put a major dent in the Dow's 603-point slide from Friday. Tesla jumped another 15% in Tuesday's premarket, and it is set to open on Wall Street at a new record high. Major shareholder Ron Baron forecast the company would top $1 trillion in revenue in a decade. As investors who bet against the stock scrambled to catch up, Tesla climbed nearly 20% on Monday to $780. Investors are still watching coronavirus developments as well as awaiting delayed Iowa caucus results, President Donald Trump's State of the Union address Tuesday night, and the Senate impeachment trial vote Wednesday.

2. Google-parent Alphabet falls after revenue miss

Carsten Rehder/picture alliance via Getty Images

Shares of Google-parent Alphabet were falling about 3% in the premarket after the tech giant beat estimates with quarterly earnings but fell short on revenue. Alphabet broke out YouTube and cloud revenue for the first time. YouTube ads generated $15.15 billion in revenue in 2019, with $4.72 billion in the fourth quarter. Google's cloud business generated $8.92 billion in revenue in 2019, with $2.61 billion in Q4. This was the first earnings report since co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin announced in December they were stepping away from day-to-day operations.

3. Disney to report earnings including Disney+ launch

The new Continue Watching area in Disney+.

Todd Haselton | CNBC

Disney reports fiscal first quarter earnings after the bell Tuesday. Analysts expect the media giant to deliver per-share profit of $1.46 on revenue of $20.78 billion. The results from Q1, which ended in December, include the launch of Disney's streaming platform Disney+, which competes with platforms like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and Apple TV. Disney signed up 10 million subscribers on its first day. Investors will be looking for any guidance on how the coronavirus might impact earnings going forward, with Shanghai Disney temporarily closing as of late last month and many dark movie theaters in China.

4. Coronavirus deaths in China rise to 425 with over 20,000 confirmed cases

The medical staff visit occupants in a hotel accommodating isolated people in Wuhan in central China's Hubei province Monday, Feb. 03, 2020.

Barcroft Media | Getty Images

Chinese health officials said 425 deaths and 20,438 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in the country. Hong Kong's Hospital Authority told CNBC that a 39-year-old man had died in the city's first coronavirus-related death. Singapore and Thailand each reported six new cases of coronavirus Tuesday. While many countries confirm their own cases, the vast majority are still in China. The Philippines on Sunday reported the first death outside China.

5. Democratic Iowa caucus results delayed by technical glitches

Volunteers tally votes during the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus at the Southridge Mall in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S., on Monday, Feb. 3, 2020.

Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Democratic results from the Iowa caucuses, the first-in-the-nation presidential nominating contest, were delayed Monday night. The state's Democratic Party said a "reporting issue" caused "inconsistencies" in some data. A source told NBC News that technical glitches hit an app for reporting results and a backup phone line for relaying information was "a disaster." The contest was too early to call, according to NBC News. However, that didn't stop ex-Mayor Pete Buttigieg from claiming victory. The next nominating contest is a week from Tuesday: the New Hampshire primary.

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2020-02-04 12:59:00Z
52780590434738