History will repeat itself when it comes to stocks in 2020, Goldman Sachs says - MarketWatch

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Goldman Sachs predicts slower-paced gains in 2020

The imminent signing of a “phase one” trade deal between the U.S. and China after months of negotiations and tensions looks set to boost stocks further. The Dow Jones Industrial DJIA, -0.46%  briefly broke the 29,000 milestone on Friday before dropping back, with the index set to rise again on Monday.

After a blockbuster 2019 for stocks it has been a volatile start to the year, but a trade truce should improve sentiment.

Goldman Sachs’ chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer, in our call of the day, said the strong gains of 2019 were driven by valuation expansion, which history shows will lead to more gains this year.

Oppenheimer said: “Years of strong valuation expansion are generally followed by positive returns in the equity market, although typically at a slower pace. Moderate profit growth this year and higher starting multiples point to total returns in the high single digits for the asset class globally in 2020.”

He added that there was a “compelling case” for equities to outperform other asset classes in 2020, far ahead of government bonds, cash and credit.

The investment bank expects the economic cycle to continue to expand, with profits likely to grow and equities making progress through the year.

U.S. stocks have outperformed those in Europe and Asia over the past decade, and while Goldman said it did not believe there were compelling reasons for that reversing in 2020, it said the gap would start to narrow.

“With investors likely to become increasingly focused on U.S. election risk, and less on risks in Europe and Asia, we think there is a good argument for more geographic diversification,” Oppenheimer said.

The market

After the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 133.13 points lower on Friday - having briefly broken the 29,000 milestone - Dow YM00, +0.39%, S&P ES00, +0.37% and Nasdaq NQ00, +0.49%  futures are on the rise. Asian markets moved higher overnight ahead of the signing of a phase one trade deal between the U.S. and China later this week. European stocks also rose in early trading.

The stat

The percentage of U.S.-listed companies losing money over the past 12 months has risen close to 40% - the highest level since the late 1990s outside of a post-recession period, The Wall Street Journal reported. Shares in the two most valuable loss-making companies have soared in the past three months, with electric vehicle maker Tesla’s TSLA, -0.66% stock doubling and technology and financial services company General Electric GE, -2.02% up 44%.

The buzz

The U.S. has “reached out” to North Korea in a bid to restart denuclearization talks, news website Axios reported on Sunday.

Saudi Aramco 2222, +2.34% said it scooped an extra $3.8 billion from its record IPO last month as it sold more shares to meet investor demand. The Saudi state oil giant sold three billion shares at 32 Saudi riyals ($8.53) each to raise $25.6 billion. The company said it sold a further 450 million shares to investors during the book-building process.

The pound slipped below $1.30 on Monday after a Bank of England policymaker hinted at an interest-rate cut. The currency dropped 0.6% to $1.2979 after Monetary Policy Committee member Gertjan Vlieghe said, in a Financial Times interview, that he would vote for lower interest rates if data doesn’t show the economy perking up after last month’s general election.

Yoga apparel maker Lululemon Athletica LULU, -0.45% lifted its earnings and revenue guidance for the fourth quarter after momentum over the holiday period. The stock climbed 0.5% in pre-market trading.

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2020-01-13 12:32:00Z
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Nissan Examines Possibility of Breaking Away From Renault - Yahoo Finance

(Bloomberg) -- Nissan Motor Co. executives have examined the possibility of breaking away from Renault SA amid concerns that relations with the longtime French partner have turned dysfunctional after the ouster of former chief Carlos Ghosn, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Since last year, Nissan has been exploring the pros and cons of sustaining the alliance, particularly when it comes to engineering and technology sharing, according to the person, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential matters. Those studies predate Ghosn’s escape from Japan and were preliminary, so no decision has been made, the person said.

It’s unclear how feasible any separation would be given that Renault is Nissan’s biggest shareholder and the French partner has been pushing for a repair of ties.

Still, the comments illustrate the fragile state of the relationship between the Japanese and French auto giants after Ghosn, who balanced the world’s largest automotive alliance for years as head of both companies, was arrested late 2018 in Japan on allegations of financial misconduct. Ghosn’s legal odyssey took a dramatic turn recently when he fled Japan for Lebanon and became the world’s most famous fugitive.

Since Ghosn’s downfall, the two carmakers have struggled financially — their shares were the two worst performers among major automakers last year — and drifted apart at a time when the costs of electrification and autonomous driving are pressuring incumbent carmakers to team up or consolidate.

Relations between the two companies are “broken and likely beyond the point of repair,” Evercore ISI analyst Arndt Ellinghorst wrote in a note on Monday.

Nissan didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Monday, a holiday in Japan. Renault declined to comment. The Financial Times reported earlier that Ghosn’s escape from Japan had spurred Nissan executives to accelerate secret contingency plans to potentially split from Renault.

The board of the Renault-Nissan alliance is scheduled to meet on Jan. 30 and the meeting could lead to announcements about joint projects, according to another person familiar with the matter.

(Updates with scheduled alliance meeting in final paragraph)

--With assistance from Reed Stevenson.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kae Inoue in Tokyo at kinoue@bloomberg.net;Ania Nussbaum in Paris at anussbaum5@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Young-Sam Cho at ycho2@bloomberg.net, ;Tara Patel at tpatel2@bloomberg.net, Ville Heiskanen

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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2020-01-13 11:26:00Z
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Kratom's Benefits And Dangers Debated Amid Marketing Push : Shots - Health News - NPR

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Kratom products are legal in most states and are widely available. But the federal Food and Drug Administration and the Drug Enforcement Administration worry that kratom carries the risk of physical and psychological dependency and, in some people, addiction. Catie Dull/NPR hide caption

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Americans know the dangers of drugs such as morphine and heroin. But what about a supplement that acts in the brain a bit like an opiate and is available in many places to kids — even from vending machines.

Kratom, an herb that's abundant, legal in most states and potentially dangerous, is the subject of an ongoing debate over its risks and benefits.

Usually, the leaf, which comes from a tropical Southeast Asian tree, is chewed, brewed or crushed into a bitter green powder. The chemicals in the herb interact with different types of receptors in the brain — some that respond to opioids, and others to stimulants. Often sold in the U.S. in a processed form — as pills, capsules or extracts — a small amount of kratom can perk you up, while a large dose has a sedative effect.

Some people who have struggled with an opioid addiction and switched to kratom swear the substance salvaged their health, livelihood and relationships.

But the federal Food and Drug Administration and the Drug Enforcement Administration worry that kratom carries the risk of physical and psychological dependency and, in some people, addiction. The FDA warns consumers not to use kratom, and the DEA threatened to prohibit kratom's sale and use in the U.S. (outside of research) in 2016; advocates and lawmakers subsequently pushed back, and the stricter scheduling of kratom that would have prompted that sort of ban never occurred. These days, the DEA lists it as a drug of concern.

"Kratom changed my life"

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Linda Kline owns Bumble Bee Botanicals, which sells kratom in five upscale shops throughout the West, including this one in San Francisco. All her products are lab tested to ensure purity, Kline says. Lesley McClurg/KQED hide caption

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Linda Kline, 33, based in Reno, Nev., sells kratom for a living. She says her several stores throughout the West have given her a new purpose in life. And while she herself doesn't have an opioid dependency, she credits kratom with turning around her mental health.

"I went from feeling desperate and hopeless to finding an alternative where I had full control over how I felt," she says.

She used to be paralyzed by anxiety and panic attacks. When her insurance carrier threatened to cut her Prozac prescription, she felt desperate. A friend suggested kratom, so she picked some up at a smoke shop.

"It almost feels like you're having just a little glass of wine," Kline says. "It's really relaxing. There's no melting of the walls."

The new habit cost about $6 a day — less than a glass of wine or fancy cup of coffee. But Kline says she couldn't always find a high-quality supply. The FDA has recalled dozens of salmonella-tainted products sold online or in convenience stores. The agency has also found toxic heavy metals in kratom supplements.

That's one reason Kline started her own chic boutiques, Bumble Bee Botanicals, devoted exclusively to kratom products that, she says, are all lab tested to ensure purity. She just opened her fifth location in less than two years. The shops offer 15 kratom strains at outlets in California, Idaho and Nevada.

Though Kline's website has a disclaimer that her products have not been evaluated by the FDA and "are not intended to cure, treat or prevent any disease/illness," some of her clients' online Yelp reviews claim kratom has dramatically relieved their chronic pain, insomnia, restless legs syndrome and more.

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Gold Bali is a strain of kratom sold at Bumble Bee Botanicals in San Francisco. "It almost feels like you're having just a little glass of wine," Kline says of kratom. "It's really relaxing." Lesley McClurg/KQED hide caption

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Lesley McClurg/KQED

Potential dangers

Glowing reviews like that haunt Mateo Martinez.

"My brother believed the marketing of kratom — that it was a natural herbal supplement that could provide you with the same benefits of an opioid without the risks," Mateo says.

Mateo's younger brother, Marco, struggled with an opioid addiction in high school. Mateo describes Marco as a charismatic, creative teen, passionate about video games, cartoons and anime. Marco got hooked on painkillers, Mateo says, after his dentist pulled his wisdom teeth.

"He was using them in a way that wasn't just for treating pain," Mateo says.

Email receipts show Marco used bitcoin to also buy Vicodin and fentanyl on the dark web.

Eventually Marco wanted to kick his opioid addiction and saw testimonials on YouTube and Reddit that promised that kratom could be a way out. Soon Marco was popping kratom capsules multiple times a day.

During his freshman year at the University of California, Davis, the 19-year-old started hyperventilating regularly. The incidents worsened, becoming seizure-like episodes and ending in trips to the emergency room. During each hospitalization, the doctors were stumped. No one thought to test for kratom.

Marco died in his UC Davis dorm in February 2018, late on a Sunday night. The toxicology report listed "acute mitragynine intoxication" — a chemical constituent of kratom — as the cause of death.

"I think kratom needs to come with a much more serious caution that it is not harmless," Mateo says. "I'm very heartbroken."

In a recent 18-month period, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 90 kratom overdoses, although most involved a combination of other substances too.

Slim science, so far

"The data to support either the benefits or the harms for kratom is really, really poor," says C. Michael White, head of the Department of Pharmacy Practice at the University of Connecticut. "A lot of the information we have comes from single-case reports."

White says that animal studies suggest kratom could be an effective pain reliever, but the collection of human data has only just begun. He says scientists need to conduct a lot more research before the appropriate level of regulation is clear. White recently argued in the American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy that the safest place for kratom is behind pharmacy counters, for adults only, but with no prescription required.

McClain Haddow, spokesperson for the American Kratom Association, agrees that the product should be sold only to people over age 18.

"We would like vendors to register their product with the FDA and get a chemical analysis from a certified lab to insure the only ingredient is the naturally occurring alkaloid in the kratom plant," Haddow says. "Some manufacturers are spiking products with fentanyl, heroin or morphine to give users a high."

Dr. Scott Steiger, deputy medical director of the opiate treatment outpatient program at Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital and Trauma Center, says he doesn't know how to advise patients who want to use kratom.

"I tell them I just don't know enough on the basis of science to tell them whether it's a great idea or not," says Steiger, who is also an associate clinical professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco.

The DEA describes kratom as an addictive substance that causes hallucinations, delusion and confusion.

"I have seen that people who use kratom end up having a very hard time stopping the use of it," says Steiger.

His patients report withdrawal symptoms such as nausea, sweats, aches and pains, loose stool, tearing and dysphoria. There is growing concern about kratom's effects on the heart and liver.

Steiger emphasizes that doctors have evidence-based treatments like buprenorphine and methadone to help people with an opioid addiction. He doesn't recommend self-medicating with kratom until more research is available.

"We just don't know enough about this chemical and the long-term use of it to know whether experimenting would lead to complications," Steiger says.

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2020-01-13 10:04:00Z
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As businesses hold back, U.S. consumers seen boosting big banks' profits - Reuters

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Consumer lending is expected to propel profits for big U.S. banks when they unveil fourth-quarter results this week, though stress in corporate lending and uneven capital markets may cast a shadow over results.

FILE PHOTO: Signs of JP Morgan Chase Bank, Citibank and Wells Fargo & Co. bank are seen in this combination photo from Reuters files. REUTERS/File Photos

Balances for individual borrowers keep reaching new records as the U.S. job market has stayed robust, prompting people to spend, and as interest rates have declined, prompting them to borrow — especially on credit cards.

Overall, U.S. consumer-loan balances at the 25 largest banks reached $1.19 trillion the last week of December, up 13% from a year earlier, according to Federal Reserve data. The biggest annual increase came from cards, where outstanding debt rose 16%.

The banks held another $1.46 trillion in residential mortgage loans.

(GRAPHIC: U.S. consumer leverage declined as incomes rose - here)

That spells good news for quarterly profits at JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citigroup Inc, which have been working to grow their card businesses in recent years. The Fed’s decision to lower rates in 2019 boosted mortgage activity, which will help major home lenders like Wells Fargo & Co. Those three banks are scheduled to report results on Tuesday.

“The consumer-lending business is going to be very profitable for the banks,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Gerard Cassidy said in an interview.

Americans borrowing to buy cars and pay for vacations has been a mainstay for industry profits recently. Consumer strength has helped offset weakness in trading, underwriting or business-loan demand at various points, with bank executives cheering it as a sign that the U.S. economy is not on the brink of recession.

Analysts expect tepid business borrowing to have continued through the fourth quarter. Global trade disputes, political uncertainties and market fluctuations have left CEOs wary of seeking financing to buy competitors or invest in operations, they said.

However, those issues could take a back seat to the thriving U.S. consumer.

As Americans’ loan balances have climbed, their incomes have grown even faster. That debt is now about equal to disposable personal income after climbing to as much as one-third higher in 2007.

Analysts say they are also encouraged that banks appear to be lending more responsibly to consumers, partly due to new regulations. Consumer delinquency rates are low at 2.8%, compared with an average of 4.3% since 2003, according to Fed data. In the recession, the rate reached 8.2%.

However, analysts cautioned that credit mistakes often occur in the best of times and that it is hard to see them with the economy growing for the 11th straight year.

Higher real-estate values have allowed property owners to raise cash by selling or refinancing. As competition has heated up in cards, some borrowers have been transferring zero-interest balances from one bank to another for a small fee, without paying off the debt.

And although unemployment is at a 50-year low and wages are higher, there are still lots of consumers living paycheck-to-paycheck.

A Fed survey last year found 39% of Americans would have a hard time handling an unexpected $400 expense. People with credit cards generally are not at such risk, but still about 16% said they would put the expense on a card.

Slideshow (3 Images)

Fred Cannon, research director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said a rise in unemployment in the next recession would expose bad loans. “There certainly could be some problems,” he said.

(GRAPHIC: Consumers are making timely payments on their debt - here)

Reporting by David Henry in New York. Additional reporting by Imani Moise and Elizabeth Dilts Marshall; Editing by Nick Zieminski

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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2020-01-13 06:10:00Z
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Airline passenger allegedly storms cockpit, attacks flight attendant, injures 6 officers - New York Post

Authorities took a man into custody after he allegedly assaulted a flight attendant and attempted to storm the plane’s cockpit last week.

A fellow passenger on the flight described the Jan. 9 incident to news outlets, saying that the plane was about to land when the suspect headed towards the cockpit in a “full sprint.” A flight attendant and six law enforcement agents were injured in the ensuing scuffle.

Matthew Dingley was taken into custody after his flight United Express flight from Dulles International Airport landed at Newark, NBC New York reports. He reportedly began acting erratically during the flight and stormed the cockpit as the plane neared its destination.

“This guy was in a full sprint, right up to the cockpit, hits the cockpit, starts banging on it,” fellow passenger Mike Egbert told NBC New York. According to him, after a flight attendant attempted to intervene, Dingley began to attack her.

Egbert described the flight attendant as, “A slight woman, petite, and this guy was clocking her.”

Another passenger on the plane apparently had law enforcement experience and was able to help get the situation under control. Unfortunately, things didn’t end there.

Port Authority Police took Dingley into custody, but only after he continued to fight with them.

“He picks up a police officer, throws the police officer…his back,” Egbert described. “If he did actually get into that cockpit lord knows what would have happened.”

The flight attendant was taken to a nearby hospital, although she has since been released. Six Port Authority Officers were injured during the incident, although they are reportedly expected to recover.

Dingley has been charged with aggravated assault, criminal trespassing, resisting arrest and interfering with transportation, NJ.com reports.

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2020-01-13 08:45:00Z
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4 Reasons to Roll Over Your 401(k) Into an IRA - The Motley Fool

There are a lot of reasons to love 401(k)s: They have higher contribution limits, the money comes right out of your paycheck every month so you don't have to remember to transfer it, and your employer might match some of your contributions. But 401(k)s also have their drawbacks. Here are four reasons you may want to consider rolling over your 401(k) into an IRA.

1. IRAs have more investment choices

Most 401(k)s contain a few investment options selected by your employer. You might be happy with these options, but if you're not, there isn't much you can do about it. You can request that your employer add more investments, but it does not have to comply. Or you could roll over your 401(k) savings into an IRA.

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IRAs offer a virtually unlimited selection of investments, including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and more. You can spread your money among as many of these assets as you choose, and change your asset allocation as often as you like. Not everyone will feel confident enough to choose their own investments from such a broad selection, but if you prefer to have more control over your retirement savings, an IRA is a better choice for you.

2. IRAs often charge lower fees

All retirement accounts, including IRAs, charge fees. Your brokerage will have a fee schedule, and your investments may have their own fees. Mutual funds, for example, charge an annual fee called an expense ratio. This is usually a percentage of your assets. 

401(k)s also have fees, which can be higher than IRA fees, especially for smaller companies. Having fewer employees means that each one has to shoulder a greater portion of the 401(k)'s administrative fees. The investments your employer selects for the plan may also have higher fees than you'd like to pay. These can eat into your profits and slow the growth of your retirement savings over time.

With an IRA, you're free to choose low-cost investments and work with the broker that's most affordable for you, so you can reduce what you're paying in fees and help your savings grow more quickly.

3. Roth IRAs aren't subject to required minimum distributions (RMDs)

Required minimum distributions (RMDs) are mandatory withdrawals from retirement accounts that begin at 72 unless you're still working and own less than 5% of the company you work for. The only accounts not subject to RMDs are Roth IRAs. These accounts are funded with after-tax dollars, and the government doesn't tax distributions, so it has no reason to make you withdraw money from these accounts early.

RMDs may force you to withdraw more money from your retirement accounts than you'd like to, raising your tax bill and hampering the growth of your savings. But stashing some of your money in Roth IRAs can help you avoid this. You're free to draw upon this money as needed, and you don't have to use it at all if you don't want to. 

Roth IRAs aren't the best choice for everyone, though. They make sense if you expect you'll be in the same or a higher tax bracket once you retire, but if you think you'll be in a lower tax bracket once you retire, a traditional IRA might make more sense. You'll pay taxes on your distributions, but you'll lose a smaller percentage of your income to the government. 

4. Rolling over your 401(k) lets you manage all your funds in one place

It's not impossible to manage your retirement savings if they're spread out among several different accounts, but it's definitely easier when they're all in one place. You can see all of your investments and fees together and make changes to your asset allocation without having to log into multiple retirement accounts.

Consider rolling over your 401(k) to an IRA if any of the above benefits appeal to you, but think through the decision carefully. The larger contribution limits and possible 401(k) match might make it worth staying with your 401(k) if you're happy with its investment choices and fees.

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2020-01-12 13:17:00Z
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Ghosn faced 7 hours a day of questioning in Japan: lawyer - Fox Business

Fox News senior legal analyst Judge Andrew Napolitano says former chairman and CEO of Renault Carlos Ghosn will most likely stay in Lebanon and spend a lot of money to protect himself.

By YURI KAGEYAMA AP Business Writer

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TOKYO (AP) — A lawyer for former Nissan Chairman Carlos Ghosn, who fled to Lebanon while awaiting trial in Japan, said his client was questioned an average of seven hours a day without a lawyer present.

Takashi Takano said in a blog post Saturday the questioning continued through weekends, Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Takano has said he told Ghosn he couldn't expect a fair trial in Japan, but his chances of winning were good because the evidence against him was so weak.

Japan's judicial system has come under fire over Ghosn's case. Critics have for years said the prolonged detentions tend to coerce false confessions. Suspects can be detained even without any charges.

CARLOS AND CAROLE GHOSN SPEAK OUT TOGETHER FOR FIRST TIME SINCE BEING REUNITED

Japanese prosecutors and Justice Minister Masako Mori have repeatedly defended the nation's system as upholding human rights, noting Japan boasts a low crime rate. Mori said the system follows appropriate procedures under Japanese law, stressing that every culture is different.

Takano said he recently looked at prosecutors' data and Ghosn's notes to tally the hours of questioning for 70 of the days Ghosn was detained. On three days, Ghosn had been questioned for some 11 hours, according to Takano's tally.

Ghosn was detained under two separate arrests for 130 days. He has been charged with underreporting his future compensation and of breach of trust in diverting Nissan Motor Co. money for alleged personal gain.

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In a news conference in Beirut lasting more than two hours, Ghosn reasserted his innocence, and accused Nissan and Japanese government officials of plotting his removal.

Ghosn, who led Nissan for two decades, has said the compensation was never decided, and the payments were for legitimate business.

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Much of his news conference was devoted to criticizing Japanese justice as rigged and harsh. He said he had been grilled without a lawyer present while held in solitary confinement. He advised all foreigners to leave.

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2020-01-12 11:47:34Z
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