Irrational exuberance? Why last year’s stellar returns may have been a reversal of ‘excessive pessimism’ - MarketWatch

On the first working day of 2020, let’s take a moment to appreciate the virtues of a vice: laziness.

Say what you will about new year’s resolutions, but last year, letting a boring old S&P 500-tracking index fund do its work was one of the best investment decisions around.

Including dividend reinvestment, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.29%  returned 33% in 2019, outperforming virtually every national index and very nearly every investment strategy.

For the decade, according to Deutsche Bank, the S&P 500 returned a cool 256%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.30%  returned 347%.

So the obvious question is, can the gains continue?

Tim Duy, a University of Oregon professor who closely tracks the Federal Reserve, plotted the return of the S&P 500 on a logarithmic scale to show that the current gains are nothing like the acceleration from the late 1990s.

“This doesn’t surprise me as I think fears of financial excess are overplayed, effectively a case of fighting the last war,” he writes. Duy also notes the level shift down since the 2007-09 recession, which he says is suggestive that a less optimistic view of the world, has already been priced into the market.

Duy also examined S&P 500 performance after the first Fed rate increase of the cycle, and finds the current performance in line with the pre-2015 average. Duy says the current performance is not “an unexplainable deviation from fundamentals” but rather an expected recovery from excessive pessimism.

The buzz

There was little new information for traders to chew on, besides the People’s Bank of China deciding to cut bank reserve requirements to help shore up the world’s second-largest economy.

Weekly U.S. jobless claims data is set for release.

While not market moving, the saga of Carlos Ghosn is still getting attention, as details of how the former Nissan and Renault executive left Japan for Lebanon still remain murky, and possibly could involve being smuggled in a musical instrument case. Turkey has detained seven individuals in connection with Ghosn’s brief travel through Istanbul.

The markets

U.S. stock futures were pointing to a strong start on Thursday, with futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average YM00, +0.59%  gaining 160 points. See Market Snapshot.

European SXXP, +1.00% and Asian stocks ADOW, +0.23%  also rose.

In currency markets, the British pound GBPUSD, -0.4302% sagged while most of the other major pairs saw little movement.

Random reads

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio says Domino’s Pizza DPZ, +0.18%  exploited those who celebrated the new year in Times Square by charging $30 for pizza.

A New York state assemblyman who tweeted there was no excuse for driving impaired was arrested days later for, yes, driving impaired.

In the U.K., cassette sales reached a 15-year high last year. Get a pencil ready to rethread your tapes.

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

Follow MarketWatch on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMikQFodHRwczovL3d3dy5tYXJrZXR3YXRjaC5jb20vc3RvcnkvaXJyYXRpb25hbC1leHViZXJhbmNlLXdoeS1sYXN0LXllYXJzLXN0ZWxsYXItcmV0dXJucy1tYXktaGF2ZS1iZWVuLWEtcmV2ZXJzYWwtb2YtZXhjZXNzaXZlLXBlc3NpbWlzbS0yMDIwLTAxLTAy0gFPaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubWFya2V0d2F0Y2guY29tL2FtcC9zdG9yeS9ndWlkL0I2ODAzRUJDLTJENDYtMTFFQS1BRTVBLTc2ODdDNTZDRDE3Nw?oc=5

2020-01-02 12:53:00Z
CAIiEG1XnMScUbHIeEKwIZpZ_wkqGAgEKg8IACoHCAowjujJATDXzBUwmJS0AQ

France Won’t Extradite Carlos Ghosn if He Goes There, Official Says - The New York Times

If the fugitive former automotive executive Carlos Ghosn were to go to France, the authorities there would not extradite him to Japan, a government minister said on Thursday, four days after Mr. Ghosn fled Japan to avoid trial on financial misconduct charges.

Mr. Ghosn, the former chief executive of Nissan and Renault, made a stunning getaway on Sunday, though his movements were supposed to be strictly limited while he was free on bail in Japan. He turned up in Lebanon, saying he had escaped the “rigged Japanese justice system.”

In Turkey, the authorities detained seven people suspected of helping Mr. Ghosn escape, according to news outlets there. He reportedly left Japan late Sunday aboard a business jet from Osaka to Istanbul Ataturk Airport, where he quickly switched to another plane and flew to Beirut.

Much about his cinematic flight remains shrouded in mystery, including how he was able to escape surveillance in Japan, how he arranged his flights to Lebanon, and whether he was helped by any other countries.

Mr. Ghosn, who has been charged in Japan with an array of financial crimes, was born in Brazil to a Lebanese family, grew up mostly in Lebanon and has lived most of his adult life in France. He has passports from all three countries, though his lawyers in Japan have said that they held the documents.

“If Mr. Ghosn arrived in France, we would not extradite Mr. Ghosn because France never extradites its nationals,” Agnès Pannier-Runacher, a junior economy minister, told the news channel BFM. “That’s a rule of the game.”

Turkish news organizations, including the state-run Anadolu news agency, reported that the planes that delivered Mr. Ghosn to Istanbul and Beirut were operated by MNG Jet, a Turkish company that offers chartered flights on business aircraft. Flight tracking websites confirm MNG flights matching Mr. Ghosn’s reported path.

Four of the seven people arrested in Turkey were pilots employed by a private aviation company, two were employees of a company that provides ground services to aircraft, and one was a manager of a private cargo company, according to the Turkish reports.

An official at Havas, a ground services company that operates at Istanbul Ataturk Airport, confirmed that two of its employees were in custody for questioning in the case but said that they were expected to be released later in the day. A person who answered the phone at MNG said no one was available to comment.

It was not clear whether anyone in Turkey knowingly aided Mr. Ghosn, or if he used some kind of subterfuge to avoid detection, like traveling under an alias.

Japanese prosecutors on Thursday raided Mr. Ghosn’s sprawling, two-story house in an exclusive neighborhood of central Tokyo. After about four hours, around a dozen men — most of them wearing black suits and surgical masks — carried out heavy black briefcases, ignoring questions journalists who followed them.

While officials in Japan have expressed their outrage over his escape, Mr. Ghosn has said he would speak to the news media “starting next week.”

In Lebanon, which doesn’t have an extradition treaty with Japan, Mr. Ghosn is seen as a folk hero, a favorite son who studied in France’s most prestigious schools before embracing a successful career in the automobile industry.

Mr. Ghosn remains widely respected in France despite the accusations that he underreported his compensation and shifted personal financial losses to Nissan. French officials would not comment on how Mr. Ghosn was able to flee Japan or whether he had a second French passport.

On extradition, Ms. Pannier-Runacher said, the same rules apply to Mr. Ghosn as to any French person. Nobody is above the law, she added, but “French citizenship protects, and is protective of its citizens.”

A flight to France would be risky: Mr. Ghosn would have to pass through the airspace of several countries that could arrest him.

Asked if Mr. Ghosn had fled to save his life, Ms. Pannier-Runacher said that although his living conditions in Japan were unpleasant, his life had not been threatened. Even so, she seemed amazed by the unfolding drama.

“I’m hesitating between novel-like and … I don’t have the words to describe this escape,” she said.

Ben Dooley contributed reporting.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiUmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMjAvMDEvMDIvd29ybGQvZXVyb3BlL2Nhcmxvcy1naG9zbi1mcmFuY2UtZXh0cmFkaXRlLmh0bWzSAVZodHRwczovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS8yMDIwLzAxLzAyL3dvcmxkL2V1cm9wZS9jYXJsb3MtZ2hvc24tZnJhbmNlLWV4dHJhZGl0ZS5hbXAuaHRtbA?oc=5

2020-01-02 10:56:00Z
52780529986448

Japan tries to solve the mystery of Carlos Ghosn's audacious escape - CNN

Japanese media reported that Tokyo district prosecutors entered the property on Thursday. CNN affiliate TV Asahi also reported that prosecutors were working with police to access CCTV video around his home as part of their investigation.

Ghosn — the former chairman of Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors, and former chairman and CEO of their alliance partner, Renault — had been awaiting trial in Japan on charges of financial wrongdoing, including allegations that he understated his income for years and funneled $5 million of Nissan's money to a car dealership he controlled. He was ousted from his posts at Nissan (NSANF) and Mitsubishi Motors following his arrest in November 2018, and later resigned from Renault (RNLSY).

As a condition of being released on bail, Ghosn was required to stay in Japan. But his case was completely upended earlier this week after Ghosn revealed that he had fled Japan for Lebanon to escape what he called a "rigged" justice system.

It is still not clear how Ghosn, who is a citizen of France, Brazil and Lebanon, was able to slip out of Japan. Reuters and the Financial Times have reported that he was smuggled out of Tokyo by a private security company -— a plot that the media organizations say took months to concoct.

Turkish state media reported Thursday that seven people have been detained in Istanbul on suspicion of helping Ghosn flee to Lebanon. Anadolu news agency said that Ghosn traveled via the city's Ataturk airport, where police detained four pilots of a private airline, two ground staff and the director of a cargo company. Flight tracker Flightradar24 showed a private jet flying from Osaka, Japan, to Istanbul and then another continuing to Lebanon at the time Ghosn is said to have arrived in the country.

CNN Business has been unable to verify the circumstances behind his departure, and Ghosn did not elaborate on his escape in his public statement earlier this week.

Japan's justice ministry, the Tokyo prosecutor's office and the city's district court have not responded to requests from CNN Business this week for comment about Ghosn's escape. Government offices are closed this week for the New Year holiday.

Legal experts and political analysts say that Japan is probably trying to figure out whether Ghosn violated immigration law when he left the country — not that there's much of a chance of forcing him to return.

Prosecutors in Tokyo are now likely retracing Ghosn's moves through Japan, collecting surveillance footage and searching for potential collaborators said Nobuo Gohara, a former prosecutor who now runs a compliance and law office in Japan.

Gohara added that Ghosn's trial is almost certainly now canceled. The bigger question, he said, is how Japanese authorities will respond to Ghosn's attacks on them, now that he is able to speak freely about his detention.

Ghosn has repeatedly denied the charges against him, and claimed that his arrest was part of a plot to remove him from the automotive empire he built. In his statement this week, he said he would "no longer be held hostage by a rigged Japanese justice system where guilt is presumed, discrimination is rampant, and basic human rights are denied."

Japan can't force Lebanon to send Ghosn back, said Keith Henry, the founder and representative director of Asia Strategy, a research and policy firm based in Tokyo. The two countries have no extradition agreement.

"It is a bigger deal for [Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo] Abe and Japan than for Ghosn," Henry said. "No matter what they do now, it is very difficult to overcome the embarrassment of letting go one of the most high-profile suspects" of corporate scandal since Japan's economic boom that followed World War II.

— CNN's Isil Sariyuce in Istanbul contributed to this article.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiUmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmNubi5jb20vMjAyMC8wMS8wMi9idXNpbmVzcy9naG9zbi1lc2NhcGUtamFwYW4tbGViYW5vbi1yYWlkL2luZGV4Lmh0bWzSAVZodHRwczovL2FtcC5jbm4uY29tL2Nubi8yMDIwLzAxLzAyL2J1c2luZXNzL2dob3NuLWVzY2FwZS1qYXBhbi1sZWJhbm9uLXJhaWQvaW5kZXguaHRtbA?oc=5

2020-01-02 10:29:00Z
52780529986448

Japanese prosecutors raid Nissan ex-chair Ghosn's Tokyo home - Yahoo News

TOKYO (AP) — Japanese prosecutors on Thursday raided the Tokyo home of former Nissan Chairman Carlos Ghosn after he skipped bail and fled to Lebanon before his trial on financial misconduct charges.

Tokyo prosecutors and police did not immediately comment. Japanese media showed investigators entering the home, which was Ghosn's third residence in Tokyo since he was first arrested a year ago. Authorities have now searched each one.

Government offices in Japan are closed this week for the New Year's holidays.

It is unclear how Ghosn avoided the tight surveillance he was under in Japan and showed up in Lebanon.

Ghosn said Tuesday in a statement that he left for Lebanon because he thought the Japanese judicial system was unjust, and he wanted to avoid “political persecution.”

He said he would talk to reporters next week.

Japan does not have an extradition treaty with Lebanon.

Lebanon has said Ghosn entered the country legally, and there was no reason to take action against him.

His lawyers in Japan said they had no knowledge of the escape and they had all his passports. Ghosn has French, Lebanese and Brazilian citizenship.

Japanese public broadcaster NHK TV, without identifying sources, reported Thursday that Ghosn had two French passports.

Earlier Japanese reports said there were no official records in Japan of Ghosn’s departure, but a private jet had left from a regional airport to Turkey.

Ghosn, who was charged with under-reporting his future compensation and breach of trust, has repeatedly asserted his innocence, saying authorities trumped up charges to prevent a possible fuller merger between Nissan Motor Co. and alliance partner Renault SA.

His 1.5 billion yen ($14 million) bail that Ghosn posted on two separate instances to get out of detention is being revoked.

___

Yuri Kageyama in on Twitter https://twitter.com/yurikageyama

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiTWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnlhaG9vLmNvbS9uZXdzL2phcGFuZXNlLXByb3NlY3V0b3JzLXJhaWQtbmlzc2FuLWV4LTA3MDUxMTUxMy5odG1s0gFRaHR0cHM6Ly9uZXdzLnlhaG9vLmNvbS9hbXBodG1sL2phcGFuZXNlLXByb3NlY3V0b3JzLXJhaWQtbmlzc2FuLWV4LTA3MDUxMTUxMy5odG1s?oc=5

2020-01-02 07:27:32Z
52780529986448

Carlos Ghosn: How did the Nissan ex-boss flee from Japan? - BBC News

He was once a titan of the car industry who held hero status in Japan. He then became one of the country's most well-known criminal suspects. Now he's an international fugitive.

Carlos Ghosn, the multi-millionaire former boss of Nissan, spent months preparing to stand trial on financial misconduct charges. At least, that was what the Japanese authorities were led to believe.

He posted 1bn yen (£6.8m; $8.9m) in bail in April. He was monitored by a 24-hour camera installed outside his house. His use of technology was heavily restricted and he was banned from travelling abroad.

Then, in a move that left Japan red-faced and his own legal team baffled, he appeared in Lebanon on New Year's Eve. "I have escaped injustice and political persecution," he declared in a statement.

"We were completely caught by surprise. I am dumbfounded," his lawyer, Junichiro Hironaka, told a crowd of reporters in Tokyo shortly after learning of Mr Ghosn's flight. "I want to ask him, 'How could you do this to us?'"

Another pressing question is: how did he do it at all?

A musical escape?

One Lebanese TV channel - MTV - reported that Mr Ghosn had fled his court-approved residence in Tokyo with the assistance of a paramilitary group who were disguised amongst a band of musicians.

It said the band had performed at his house and, shortly after they had finished, the 65-year-old hid himself in a large musical instrument case which was then hurried to a local airport. If this really happened, it may have been a tight squeeze even for Mr Ghosn, whose height is reported at 5ft 6in (167cm).

According to the MTV story, he then flew to Turkey, before arriving in Lebanon on a private jet. The broadcaster provided no proof for this theory which, unsurprisingly, spread rapidly across social media.

But donning a spy-movie disguise is not beyond Mr Ghosn. In March, in a bid to throw journalists off his scent, he left prison disguised as a construction worker. He was quickly identified, mocked in the media, and his lawyer soon apologised for the "amateur plan".

The role of Carole Ghosn

The former CEO's getaway from Tokyo to Beirut was meticulously planned over a period of several weeks, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The newspaper, which cited a number of unidentified sources, said a team was carefully assembled to carry out the plot. The group reportedly included accomplices in Japan who transported Mr Ghosn from his house and onto a private jet bound for Istanbul. From there, he continued his journey to Beirut where he arrived in the early hours of 30 December.

The plane tracking site FlightRadar24 showed a a Bombardier Challenger private jet arriving at Beirut-Rafic Hariri international airport shortly after 04:00 local time. Mr Ghosn then met his wife Carole, who was born in the city and was heavily involved in the operation, the Wall Street Journal says.

Several reports have said Carole Ghosn was a major figure behind the plan for her husband to skip bail and get out of Japan. She spoke with him for more than an hour on 24 December, Mr Ghosn's Japanese lawyer said. The couple had previously been banned from meeting or communicating under Mr Ghosn's strict bail conditions.

After her husband arrived in Lebanon, Mrs Ghosn told the Wall Street Journal that their reunion was "the best gift of my life". She has not commented on her alleged involvement in the operation.

Earlier this year she told the BBC: "I want my husband back. I want him with me. I know he is innocent."

Media playback is unsupported on your device

Carlos Ghosn grew up in Lebanon, owns property there and is a popular figure. He even appeared on one of the country's postage stamps.

He has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.

Three passports

Questions remain about the documents Mr Ghosn used to enter Lebanon. He holds three passports - Brazilian, French and Lebanese - but his legal team maintain that they were in possession of all of them when he left Japan.

It is not known whether Mr Ghosn was holding duplicate passports - as businesspeople are sometimes allowed to do. It has also been reported that he may have had a diplomatic passport issued by Lebanon although this has not been confirmed.

While the French newspaper Le Monde said he travelled on an ID card, others have reported that he may have used a French passport or even a false identity with forged documents. Lebanon's foreign ministry has not said what passport Mr Ghosn travelled on but it has insisted that he entered the country legally.

The embarrassment caused by Mr Ghosn's flight soon sparked a reaction from Japan. One Japanese politician asked whether he "had the support of some country". A former governor of Tokyo was more forthright, accusing Lebanon of direct involvement.

"The government has nothing to do with [Mr Ghosn's] decision to come," Lebanese minister Salim Jreissati was quoted as saying by the New York Times. "We don't know the circumstances of his arrival." France and Turkey have also said they were unaware of Mr Ghosn's plan.

There is no extradition deal between Japan and Lebanon, which means the future of Mr Ghosn's trial is now fraught with uncertainty.

Japan gives millions in aid to Lebanon and will likely want Mr Ghosn returned. But it will no doubt have to answer further questions about how such a high-profile suspect was able to get out of the country in the first place.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiJ2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJiYy5jb20vbmV3cy93b3JsZC01MDk2NDA0MNIBK2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJiYy5jb20vbmV3cy9hbXAvd29ybGQtNTA5NjQwNDA?oc=5

2020-01-01 13:01:05Z
52780529986448

Here's what's open and closed New Years Day - CNN

Here's what's open and closed on New Years Day. Hours vary by location and some places close early for the holiday, so it's best to call ahead to check.

Target -- Open regular hours

Walmart -- Open regular hours

Kroger-- Open regular hours

Publix -- Open, but many stores have limited hours

Whole Foods -- Open, but many stores have limited hours

Movie theaters -- Open regular hours

Zoos -- Open regular hours

Malls -- Most malls and department stores are open. Call your local stores to check.

Trader Joe's -- Closed

Costco -- Closed

Aldi -- Closed

Government-run locations, such as the Department of Motor Vehicles and public libraries, are most likely going to be closed.

The US Postal Service will not deliver mail Wednesday, and US post offices are closed as well. FedEx and UPS will also be closed.

Banks are generally closed, although ATMs are always available.

If you plan to visit a museum, call to make sure they aren't closed. Not every museum is open on New Year's Day.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiVWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmNubi5jb20vMjAyMC8wMS8wMS91cy93aGF0cy1vcGVuLWFuZC1jbG9zZWQtbmV3LXllYXJzLWRheS10cm5kL2luZGV4Lmh0bWzSAVlodHRwczovL2FtcC5jbm4uY29tL2Nubi8yMDIwLzAxLzAxL3VzL3doYXRzLW9wZW4tYW5kLWNsb3NlZC1uZXcteWVhcnMtZGF5LXRybmQvaW5kZXguaHRtbA?oc=5

2020-01-01 11:48:00Z
52780532224748

China Moves to Steady Its Slowing Economic Growth - The New York Times

HONG KONG — China on Wednesday moved to inject $115 billion in cash into its financial system, suggesting that Beijing remains concerned about faltering growth despite signs that the world’s second-largest economy is stabilizing.

China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, on Wednesday cut the amount of money that it requires the country’s commercial banks to stash away for a rainy day, a measure called the reserve requirement ratio. The move will essentially inject about $115 billion into the financial system after it goes into effect on Monday. The cut comes after a similar move in September.

The change, announced on the New Year’s Day holiday, is likely to focus renewed attention on the health of the Chinese economy, a major driver of global growth. While the move is relatively modest given the vast size of the Chinese economy, it follows a recent meeting of the country’s top economic planners and comes just a few weeks before Beijing releases its growth figures for the last three months of 2019.

China’s leaders are contending with the country’s slowest pace of growth in nearly three decades.

Beijing has been trying to pare down the country’s dependence on borrowing, which helped fuel heady growth in recent years but left big debts on the balance sheets of major corporations and local governments. Reducing that dependence could help prevent major problems down the road, but at the cost of slower growth in the near term.

The Chinese economy has also been hit by President Trump’s trade war. Higher tariffs have made it more expensive to sell Chinese-made goods to American customers, denting China’s factory activity and consumer confidence there. A likely trade truce could limit the damage but still leave many tariffs in place.

Some recent signs had suggested that China’s slowdown was easing. November figures for industrial output and retail sales had suggested the economy was strengthening. The property market, an essential part of the Chinese economy that in recent months had been holding back growth, also appeared to be improving.

But other signs still indicate weakness. The China Beige Book, an economic consulting firm, pointed in its December report to slowing growth in new orders and ramped up borrowing by Chinese companies. “With China’s economy seeing record levels of corporate borrowing,” it said, “is this as good as it gets?”

The cut announced Wednesday was expected by many economists. They see Beijing as trying to find middle ground between supporting economic growth without resorting to more dramatic steps that could rev the economy further but saddle the country with even more debt.

As a result, China’s headline growth figures are widely expected to slow further, though at a measured pace. In the first three quarters of 2019, its output grew 6.2 percent compared with a year before. Still, economists take those figures with a deep amount of skepticism because they tend to be smoother and steadier than those issued by other countries, and they usually hit official targets.

The cut is not unusual so early in the year ahead of China’s Lunar New Year holiday, which begins this year on Jan. 25, and when demand for cash intensifies. The central bank made a similar cut about a year ago.

China’s cut announced on Wednesday reduced the requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, to 12.5 percent for large banks.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiYGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMjAvMDEvMDEvYnVzaW5lc3MvZWNvbm9teS9jaGluYS1lY29ub215LXJlc2VydmUtcmVxdWlyZW1lbnQtcmF0aW8uaHRtbNIBZGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMjAvMDEvMDEvYnVzaW5lc3MvZWNvbm9teS9jaGluYS1lY29ub215LXJlc2VydmUtcmVxdWlyZW1lbnQtcmF0aW8uYW1wLmh0bWw?oc=5

2020-01-01 10:12:00Z
52780533200893