Asian markets mostly gained in cautious trading Friday amid fresh doubts about the likelihood of a U.S.-China trade deal.
Bloomberg News reported Thursday that Chinese officials were expressing doubts about the chances of a comprehensive trade deal even if a “phase one” partial deal is signed. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said the U.S. and China were looking for a new site to sign the “phase one” deal in November, since the upcoming Asia-Pacific summit in Chile was canceled.
U.S. stocks closed lower Thursday on the trade-deal concerns, more evidence of a slowdown in manufacturing and mixed corporate earnings.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job growth likely slowed sharply in October, weighed down by a strike at General Motors (GM.N), while the unemployment rate is expected to tick up from near a 50-year low of 3.5%.
FILE PHOTO: A "Help Wanted" sign reads "Not Hiring" in Livonia, Michigan, U.S., October 9, 2019. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
The 40-day strike by members of the United Auto Workers union, which came as hiring was already slowing, could make it difficult to get a clear pulse on the labor market and clues on the health of consumers, the economy’s engine.
The Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report on Friday will follow data this week showing a further slowdown in economic growth in the third quarter as a trade tensions-induced slump in business investment deepened.
The Federal Reserve cut interests rates on Wednesday for the third time this year, but signaled a pause in the easing cycle that started in July when it reduced borrowing costs for the first time since 2008.
“There is going to be more noise than signal in this employment report because of the GM strike,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in Westchester, Pennsylvania.
According to a Reuters survey of economists, non-farm payrolls probably increased by only 89,000 jobs in October, with manufacturing shedding at least 50,000 positions, which would be the most since 2009. Employment rose by 136,000 jobs in September.
Government data last Friday showed 46,000 GM employees were idle at the automaker’s plants in Michigan and Kentucky during the period establishments were surveyed for October payrolls.
Striking workers who do not receive a paycheck during the payrolls survey period are treated as unemployed. The strike, which ended last Friday, had an impact on suppliers in the auto industry. That led economists to believe the work stoppage cut between 75,000 and 80,000 jobs from October payrolls.
Even without the strike distortions, job growth has been slowing this year, averaging 161,000 per month compared with an average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018. The nearly 16-month trade war between the United States and China, which has undermined business investment, has been blamed for the slow job growth.
“We don’t want to ignore the impact the trade fight is having on business job decisions,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at S&P Global Ratings in New York.
EYES ON WAGES
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) employment measure for the manufacturing industry has contracted, likely suggesting manufacturers could be planning workforce reductions. ISM’s services sector employment gauge has also declined.
The GM strike is also seen limiting the rebound in wage gains in October. Average hourly earnings are forecast up 0.3% after being unchanged in September. That would lift the annual increase in wages to 3.0% in October from 2.9% in September. Wage growth peaked at 3.4% in February.
There are fears the business investment malaise could spill over to the labor market, which is underpinning consumer spending. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he did not see this risk as the labor market remains solid., but not everyone is convinced.
“As it is, some contagion is already evident,” said Bob Schwartz, a senior economist at Oxford Economics in New York. “Small businesses are reporting cutbacks in hiring and investment plans. If this downbeat note reverberates in a meaningful way to households, spurring an upsurge in job insecurity, the last pillar to fall in a recession - consumer spending - would be at risk of crumbling.”
Solid consumer spending blunted some of the drag on the economy from weak business investment to limit the slowdown in growth to a 1.9% annualized rate in the third quarter. The economy grew at a 2.0% pace in the April-June quarter.
Though the household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived likely treated the striking workers as employed, the jobless rate is expected to have increased by one-tenth of a percent point to 3.6% in October. The household survey, which is volatile because of a small sample, showed 1.57 million jobs created in the last five months, far outpacing the payrolls gain reported in the bigger establishment survey.
FILE PHOTO: Striking union auto worker holds a sign on the picket line outside the General Motors Flint Truck Assembly in Flint, Michigan, U.S., October 9, 2019. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
“This discrepancy creates some risk of a sudden reversal in household employment that could lead to a sudden uptick in the unemployment rate, which would be particularly unsettling at a time when markets are focused on recession triggers or risks,” said Michelle Girard, chief economist at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut.
October’s anticipated strike-driven plunge in manufacturing will follow a drop of 2,000 jobs in September, which was the first fall in factory payrolls in six months. Manufacturing is struggling under the weight of trade tariffs, which the White House has argued are intended to boost the sector.
Construction employment is expected to have risen in October, though hiring has slowed from a peak of 56,000 jobs in January. Further gains are expected in government employment, in part because of hiring for the 2020 Census.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Dan Grebler
A trader laughs ahead of the closing bell on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 1, 2019 in New York City.
Johannes Eisele | AFP | Getty Images
The stage appears to be set for stocks to shine after the Federal Reserve's third rate cut and its signal to stop from now. And certain groups of stocks stand to benefit the most, if history is any guide.
The Fed slashed interest rates for the third straight time this year on Wednesday while indicating it is going to pause easing. Powell made it clear in the press conference that the current monetary policy stance is "likely to remain appropriate."
The three-and-done approach was used on two occasions in history — between 1995 and 1996 and in 1998. The Alan Greenspan-led Fed slashed rates by a total of 75 basis points, during both periods to combat an economic downturn and successfully prolong the expansion.
The Fed's insurance easing episodes in the 1990s managed to drive the S&P 500 22% higher on average a year after the third cut, CNBC analysis found. The move was particularly beneficial for cyclical stocks including tech, energy and industrials as investors bet on economically sensitive pockets of the market after Fed rate cuts.
CNBC, using hedge fund analytics tool Kensho, found that information technology stood out as the best-performing sector after the central bank cut rates three times and paused, surging a whopping 66% a year after the third cut on average. Energy and industrial stocks both jumped about 24% on average during the same period.
It's not surprising that cyclical stocks have historically enjoyed the biggest boost from Fed's rate cuts. As monetary easing is designed to jolt the economy, investors tend to gravitate towards stocks traditionally correlated to economic growth.
To be sure, the tech sector's stunning pop in the 1990s happened when there was a rapid rise in U.S. tech stock valuations at the height of the dotcom bubble. So the Fed put should have less of an impact on the group this time.
Shareholders of each automaker would own 50% of the combined operation, the companies said in a joint statement on Thursday. A binding agreement could be finalized within weeks, the statement said.
The combined company would be based in the Netherlands, which is the current headquarters of Fiat Chrysler. John Elkann, the US-born scion of the Italian family that founded Fiat, would be chairman of the combined company, while PSA chief executive Carlos Tavares would be CEO.
The combined company would have roughly 410,000 employees and annual revenues of $190 billion. Fiat Chrysler(FCAU) and PSA(PUGOY) sold a combined 8.7 million vehicles last year, just ahead of General Motors(GM), which sold 8.3 million, and not far behind Volkswagen(VLKAF) and Toyota(TM), which each sold over 10 million.
The merger comes amid a global auto sales slowdown. At the same time, carmakers are scrambling to invest in the electric and hybrid technologies needed to meet strict new emissions targets in China and Europe. The autonomous vehicles of the future also present a threat to traditional industry business models. The huge amount of capital needed to meet these new challenges has forced some automakers to find partners and turned others into acquisition targets.
Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of industry analysis, said the planned merger of Fiat Chrysler and France's PSA "isn't really about product or expanding to new markets." Instead, it's about funding research into the vehicles of the future.
"The electrified, autonomous future everyone is waiting for just isn't feasible without automakers merging and forming strategic alliances to share research and development costs," she said. "This is a smart move by both Fiat Chrysler and PSA to ensure their companies continue to be viable and relevant as the industry evolves."
The carmaker with the most urgent need to combine in this case was PSA, which has fallen behind on developing clean cars. Electric vehicles account for less than 0.3% of its overall sales, and it had to pay Tesla(TSLA) for credits needed to comply with EU emissions standards. Fiat Chrysler has also trailed larger rivals in developing electric vehicles.
Even the biggest players in the industry are making changes. Volkswagen and Ford(F) are working together to develop electric and self-driving vehicles, while German carmakers BMW(BMWYY) and Daimler(DDAIF) have formed a joint venture that will develop driverless technology. Honda has invested in General Motors' self-driving car unit.
A history of mergers
It's not the first time that PSA has used a merger to bulk up. In 2017 it paid $2.3 billion to buy GM's European business, adding the Opel and Vauxhall brands as GM exited the continent. While GM lost about $22.4 billion in Europe over the 17 years before that deal, Opel and Vauxhall are now profitable for PSA.
Teaming up during times of adversity is also a familiar strategy for Fiat, which started the purchase of US rival Chrysler out of bankruptcy a decade ago. It completed the merger five years later. But even following that deal, Fiat Chrysler was still significantly smaller than many of its rivals, putting it at a disadvantage in purchasing muscle as well as spreading out the cost of research and development.
Sergio Marchionne, the late CEO who brought Fiat and Chrysler together, spoke publicly about his desire for a deal with GM. He also expressed interest in a combination with a tech company such as Google or Apple.
Earlier this year, Fiat Chrysler made a merger proposal to another French automaker, Renault, a company of comparable size to PSA. But it withdrew the offer, saying that "it has become clear that the political conditions in France do not currently exist for such a combination to proceed successfully."
The French government owns 15% of Renault and is its largest shareholder; it also owns 12.2% of PSA. France has said it would approve the Renault deal only if there were protections for French jobs and factories.
New challenges
Fiat Chrysler and PSA will face huge challenges even if their merger is completed.
Both have struggled to break into China, the world's largest market for new cars. Automakers have sold 10% fewer cars there so far in 2019, but the joint ventures of Fiat Chrysler and PSA have been hit especially hard. Sales dropped by a third for Fiat Chrysler in the first half of the year, and more than 50% for PSA.
PSA also has no presence in the United States, the world's second largest car market. Miniscule US sales of Fiat branded cars show the difficulty in bringing mass market European brands, as opposed to luxury brands, to US showrooms.
"Both Fiat Chrysler and PSA have a lot of quirky city cars that couldn't be further from what US car shoppers want right now," said Caldwell.
Shareholders of each automaker would own 50% of the combined operation, the companies said in a joint statement on Thursday. A binding agreement could be finalized within weeks, the statement said.
The combined company would be based in the Netherlands, which is the current headquarters of Fiat Chrysler. John Elkann, the US-born scion of the Italian family that founded Fiat, would be chairman of the combined company, while PSA chief executive Carlos Tavares would be CEO.
The company would have roughly 410,000 employees and rank among the largest automakers in the world. Fiat Chrysler(FCAU) and PSA(PUGOY) sold a combined 8.7 million vehicles last year, just ahead of General Motors(GM), which sold 8.3 million, and not far behind Volkswagen(VLKAF) and Toyota(TM), which each sold over 10 million.
The merger comes amid a global auto sales slowdown. At the same time, carmakers are scrambling to invest in the electric and hybrid technologies needed to meet strict new emissions targets in China and Europe. The autonomous vehicles of the future also present a threat to traditional industry business models. The huge amount of capital needed to meet these new challenges has forced some automakers to find partners and turned others into acquisition targets.
Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of industry analysis, said the planned merger of Fiat Chrysler and France's PSA "isn't really about product or expanding to new markets." Instead, it's about funding research into the vehicles of the future.
"The electrified, autonomous future everyone is waiting for just isn't feasible without automakers merging and forming strategic alliances to share research and development costs," she said. "This is a smart move by both Fiat Chrysler and PSA to ensure their companies continue to be viable and relevant as the industry evolves."
The carmaker with the most urgent need to combine in this case was PSA, which has fallen behind on developing clean cars. Electric vehicles account for less than 0.3% of its overall sales, and it had to pay Tesla(TSLA) for credits needed to comply with EU emissions standards. Fiat Chrysler has also trailed larger rivals in developing electric vehicles.
Even the biggest players in the industry are making changes. Volkswagen and Ford(F) are working together to develop electric and self-driving vehicles, while German carmakers BMW(BMWYY) and Daimler(DDAIF) have formed a joint venture that will develop driverless technology. Honda has invested in General Motors' self-driving car unit.
A history of mergers
It's not the first time that PSA has used a merger to bulk up. In 2017 it paid $2.3 billion to buy GM's European business, adding the Opel and Vauxhall brands as GM exited the continent. While GM lost about $22.4 billion in Europe over the 17 years before that deal, Opel and Vauxhall are now profitable for PSA.
Teaming up during times of adversity is also a familiar strategy for Fiat, which started the purchase of US rival Chrysler out of bankruptcy a decade ago. It completed the merger five years later. But even following that deal, Fiat Chrysler was still significantly smaller than many of its rivals, putting it at a disadvantage in purchasing muscle as well as spreading out the cost of research and development.
Sergio Marchionne, the late CEO who brought Fiat and Chrysler together, spoke publicly about his desire for a deal with GM. He also expressed interest in a combination with a tech company such as Google or Apple.
Earlier this year, Fiat Chrysler made a merger proposal to another French automaker, Renault, a company of comparable size to PSA. But it withdrew the offer, saying that "it has become clear that the political conditions in France do not currently exist for such a combination to proceed successfully."
The French government owns 15% of Renault and is its largest shareholder; it also owns 12.2% of PSA. France has said it would approve the Renault deal only if there were protections for French jobs and factories.
New challenges
Fiat Chrysler and PSA will face huge challenges even if their merger is completed.
Both have struggled to break into China, the world's largest market for new cars. Automakers have sold 10% fewer cars there so far in 2019, but the joint ventures of Fiat Chrysler and PSA have been hit especially hard. Sales dropped by a third for Fiat Chrysler in the first half of the year, and more than 50% for PSA.
PSA also has no presence in the United States, the world's second largest car market. Miniscule US sales of Fiat branded cars show the difficulty in bringing mass market European brands, as opposed to luxury brands, to US showrooms.
"Both Fiat Chrysler and PSA have a lot of quirky city cars that couldn't be further from what US car shoppers want right now," said Caldwell.
Shareholders of each automaker would own 50% of the combined operation, the companies said in a joint statement on Thursday. A binding agreement could be finalized within weeks, the statement said.
The combined company would be based in the Netherlands, which is the current headquarters of Fiat Chrysler. John Elkann, the current chairman of Fiat Chrysler(FCAU), would perform the same role at the combined company, while PSA Group chief executive Carlos Tavares would be CEO.
The company would rank among the largest automakers in the world. Fiat Chrysler and PSA (PUGOY) sold a combined 8.7 million vehicles last year, just ahead of GM(GM), which sold 8.3 million, and not far behind Volkswagen(VLKAF) and Toyota(TM), which each sold over 10 million.
The merger comes amid a global sales slowdown. At the same time, carmakers are scrambling to invest in the electric and hybrid technologies needed to meet strict new emissions targets in China and Europe. The autonomous vehicles of the future also present a threat to traditional industry business models.
The huge amount of capital needed to meet these new challenges has forced some automakers to find partners and turned others into acquisition targets.
"We view the combination of these two companies as reasonable given global competition, high capital intensity, and industry disruption from electrified powertrain as well as autonomous technologies," Richard Hilgert, a senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said in a research note on Wednesday.
Less than a week after members of the United Auto Workers union returned to work at GM(GM), negotiators for the UAW and Ford(F) announced late Wednesday they had reached a tentative agreement.
While there had been some preliminary talks between the union and Ford before and even during the GM strike, Ford negotiations only moved to the front burner for the union on Monday.
The deal still needs to be ratified by the 55,000 union members at Ford before it can go into effect. Neither the union nor company would disclose any details of the agreement.
But the quick settlement was a striking contrast with the contentious talks at GM. Nearly 50,000 GM workers were on strike from Sept. 16 until members there ratified a new deal and started returning to work this past Saturday. GM disclosed this week that it expects the strike cost it $2.9 billion.
The auto industry is facing a slowdown in sales and the risk of further declines if the US economy continues to slow. It is also facing the need to spend billions to develop the next generation of vehicles, electric and self-driving cars that may not be profitable for years.
Ford has said it plans to spend $11 billion in the coming few years to restructure its business globally to free up funds to develop electric and autonomous vehicles. But while it is profitable, it recently lowered its profit forecast for the rest of this year. And the cost of its restructuring plans was a major factor in having its credit rating recently reduced to junk bond status.
"It appears both parties took a sane approach, and avoided a painful strike that would have benefited neither of them," said Patrick Anderson, CEO of Anderson Economic Group, a Michigan research firm that follows the auto industry.
A successful ratification vote is by no means assured. Four years ago only 51% of the union members at Ford voted in favor of a deal that included their first pay raises in more than a decade.
But it always seemed unlikely that the Ford workers would follow GM workers out on strike. There has not been a work stoppage at Ford since 1976.
And the biggest point of contention at GM -- the automaker's decision to close three US plants where work was halted earlier this year -- was not present at Ford, where no US plant closings are planned.
The union had vowed to make GM shift work back from Mexico to try to revive the plants. While GM agreed to build an electric truck planned at a date yet to be determined at a fourth plant slated for closure, it would not shift work back from Mexico to save any of the other three plants.
The workers at Ford will likely get many of the same terms as found in the GM contract. Once the union reaches a deal with one US automaker, it strives to get the other two unionized companies to follow that pattern.
Under the deal at GM, hourly workers get an $11,000 signing bonus, a 6% raise over the four-year life of the contract, an agreement to allow many temporary workers to be hired on a permanent basis, and the health care coverage left essentially unchanged despite the company's desire to have workers assume a much greater share of the cost.
If Ford workers agree to a new contract that includes those provisions, they will benefit from not losing six weeks of pay in order to receive those gains.
Once the Ford ratification vote is complete, likely in the next couple of weeks, the union will turn to the third unionized US automaker, Fiat Chrysler(FCAU). Contract talks there could be complicated by the potential announcement of a merger with French automaker PSA, the owner of Peugeot.
-- CNN Business' Vanessa Yurkevich contributed to this story
