Jumat, 18 Oktober 2019

Asian shares slump after weak China GDP, pound retreats - Investing.com

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The German share price index DAX graph at the stock exchange in Frankfurt © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The German share price index DAX graph at the stock exchange in Frankfurt

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks slipped after China posted its weakest growth rate in nearly three decades on Friday, while the dollar was set for its worst week in almost four months having been pummeled by pound and euro Brexit rallies.

China's economy grew a slightly less-than-expected 6% in the third quarter, leaving traders hoping that the swift stimulus Beijing and the major global central banks have provided in recent weeks will fend off a more serious downturn.

Main European bourses fell a modest 0.1%-0.3% () after Asia had been led lower by a 1.2% slump in top Chinese shares (). There was also a sharp reverse in car shares () after a Renault (PA:) profit warning. ()

"You can't get away from the fact that China is slowing, but it's not slowing more than we thought," said head of global macro strategy at State Street (NYSE:) Global Markets Michael Metcalfe.

"We know that Q4 is going to be a soft patch, but to a degree policymakers are ahead of this, so as long as we don't have an escalation of the trade war now I think markets can handle it."

In currencies, sterling was taking a breather at $1.2850 , having scored its best six-day streak in near 30 years on Thursday after Britain and the EU sealed a new Brexit deal.

Doubts about whether the deal will be approved in the British parliament were still sky high, though, with swathes of lawmakers, who are either reluctant about Brexit or worried the deal is not a clean enough break, due to debate the deal in a rare Saturday sitting.

"Whatever was agreed last night with the EU still has to go through the British parliament... the uncertainty surrounding that still hasn't changed one iota," said James McGlew, executive director of corporate stockbroking at Argonaut.

The euro rested at $1.1125 (), not far from $1.1140, its highest since Aug. 26. The dollar remained weak too having seen this week's weak retail sales data and more U.S. interest rate cut talk contribute to its biggest weekly slide since June. ()

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Helping to alleviate immediate trade war worries, China had said on Thursday that it hoped to reach a phased agreement in its trade dispute with the United States as soon as possible.

Investors were also encouraged by upbeat earnings from Netflix (O:) and Morgan Stanley (N:), but poor results from International Business Machines Corp (N:) and weak U.S. economic data weighed.

Housing starts, industrial production and mid-Atlantic factory output all fell short of economists' expectations.

Reflecting the cautious mood, the safe-haven yen strengthened, with the dollar falling 0.13% to 108.51. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes () edged up though to 1.764%, compared with a U.S. close of 1.755% on Thursday.

Euro zone bond yields were also nudging up with German Bund yields holding at -0.40%, the highest since early August. ()

The Bund yield is now up 16 bps since Irish and British leaders said on Oct. 10 they saw a path to a Brexit deal, which boosted risk appetite and weakened demand for safe-haven assets like bonds.

In commodities, oil fell on the China data, with Brent crude () easing 0.52% to $59.60 and U.S. crude () dropping 0.19% to $53.83.

"The (China) GDP print has weighed on short-term sentiment and we have seen regional stock markets and oil contracts edge lower because of that," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at brokerage OANDA.

Crude demand growth tends to track economic growth trends, but Halley said China's need for oil would not recede any time soon.

Underlining that view, Chinese official data released on Friday showed robust refinery throughput in September, rising 9.4% from a year earlier to 56.49 million tonnes, on increases from new refineries and some independent refiners resuming operations after maintenance.

Gold dipped to $1,488 per ounce.

(GRAPHIC: GBP loses Brexit deal boost - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/12/7551/7482/gbp.png)

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2019-10-18 06:32:00Z
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China's economic growth sinks to a 26-year low - Fox Business

China's economy took another hit last quarter as the tariff war with the United States takes its toll.

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China's economic growth decelerated to a 26-year low in the latest quarter, adding to a deepening slump that is weighing on global growth.

The world's second-largest economy expanded by 6 percent in the three months ending in September, down from the previous quarter's 6.2 percent, data showed Friday.

An impressive number for most countries, but not for China.

It was the lowest rate since China started reporting data by quarters in 1993.

U.S. growth was 2.1 percent in the second quarter.

The slump increases pressure on Chinese leaders to avert politically dangerous job losses as they fight a tariff war with President Trump over Beijing's trade surplus and technology ambitions.

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The slowdown in China, the world's biggest trader, has global repercussions. It is depressing demand for industrial components from Asian countries and prices of soybeans, iron ore and other commodities, hitting Brazil, Australia and other suppliers.

The International Monetary Fund cited the U.S.-Chinese tariff war as a factor in this week's decision to cut its 2019 global growth forecast to 3 percent from its previous outlook of 3.2 percent.

Trump agreed last week to delay a tariff hike on Chinese goods and said Beijing promised to buy up to $50 billion of American farm goods. Officials say the two sides still are working out details.

Beijing has yet to confirm the scale of possible purchases of U.S. goods. It is unclear whether Chinese leaders want more steps including possibly lifting punitive tariffs already in place before purchases go ahead.

An even bigger impact on Chinese growth appears to come from cooling domestic activity including consumer spending and investment.

Retail sales growth declined to 8.2 percent over a year earlier in the first three quarters of 2019, down from the first half's 8.4 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics reported.

China's exports to the United States, its biggest foreign market, fell 21.9 percent in September from a year ago. That helped to drag down overall Chinese exports by 1.4 percent. Imports of American goods sank 15.7 percent.

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The latest economic growth figure was the lowest since China began reporting data by quarters in 1993. Annual growth tumbled to 3.9 percent in 1990, but rebounded to 9.3 percent the following year.

The Associated Press contributed to this article.

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2019-10-18 03:56:42Z
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China's economic growth continues to cool off - MarketWatch

SHANGHAI--China's economy grew 6% in the third quarter, landing right on the central government's full-year baseline target for gross domestic product, as business activity continues to deteriorate in the world's No. 2 economy.

Growth across the board cooled in the third quarter, despite some recoveries in industrial production and retail sales at the end of the quarter, according to data published Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics.

But investment in fixed assets, a measure of construction activity that has long been a major economic driver but is becoming less so, was weaker in the first nine months, with a 5.4% rise from a year earlier. That compared with a 5.5% pace in the first eight months and was down from 5.8% growth announced after the first half.

Investment in the agricultural, manufacturing and industrial sectors retreated in September while infrastructure investment accelerated ahead of the Communist Party's celebration of its 70th year in power on Oct. 1.

Ding Shuang, an economist with Standard Chartered, said the pickup in infrastructure investment was attributable to greater bond issuances to finance projects launched by local governments, though he said the acceleration in September's industrial production was probably due to the inclusion by the statistics bureau of previously missed data.

Chinese growth has been on a downward trajectory for the past several years. Each quarterly slowdown in growth pulls the economic performance to new lows not seen since the current measure of GDP was adopted in 1992. The economy performed worse in 1990, when China was reeling from the 1989 crackdown on students in Tiananmen Square, which crippled investment.

The deceleration reported Friday compares with a 6.2% rate of growth posted in the second quarter--which economists said was driven by more lending--and a 6.4% figure in the first quarter, which was helped by a March tax cut worth 2 trillion yuan ($283 billion).

"Despite increased downward pressure on economic growth, major economic indicators remained in a reasonable range," a spokesman for the Statistics Bureau, Mao Shengyong, said, citing steady employment and inflation, aside from energy and food prices.

The fourth quarter, Mr. Mao forecast, would feature "conditions and supports" for the economy, including a less-steep drop in auto sales and industrial production, as well as stabilizing infrastructure investment.

Mr. Mao also cited apparent progress between U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators as a positive factor, describing it as "a good thing for the markets and the global economy, including the Chinese economy."

Capital Economics's China economist, Julian Evans-Pritchard, wrote in a note that despite the stronger September figures, downward economic pressure is building.

"We expect monetary policy to be loosened before long in response, but it will take time for this to put a floor beneath economic growth," Mr. Evans-Pritchard wrote.

The quarterly figure was slightly lower than a median forecast for 6.1% growth in a poll of 13 economists by The Wall Street Journal. Beijing's target range for GDP growth of between 6.0% and 6.5% this year has anticipated a weakening performance. The average for the first nine months is 6.2%.

Last year, the Chinese economy expanded 6.6%.

Friday's report showed value-added industrial output in China rose 5.8% in September from a year earlier, accelerating from a 4.4% figure in August and better than a median 4.9% forecast of 15 economists surveyed by the Journal.

Retail sales climbed 7.8% in September from a year earlier, matching economist expectations. That was a touch better than August's 7.5% rise.

The 5.4% growth in construction activity matched economists' median forecast.

Home sales by value for the January-to-September period rose 10.3% from a year earlier, versus a 9.9% gain in the first eight months of the year. Investment in commercial and residential real estate gained 10.5% in the first nine months of the year, unchanged from the first eight months.

Construction starts were somewhat weaker, increasing 8.6% from January to September from a year earlier, compared with 8.9% in the first eight months of the year.

The government put the final consumption expenditure at 60.5% of the GDP in the first nine months of the year, with investment at 19.8% and net exports at 19.6%.

Liyan Qi and Grace Zhu contributed to this article.

Write to James T. Areddy at james.areddy@wsj.com

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-economic-growth-continues-to-cool-off-2019-10-17

2019-10-18 03:51:00Z
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Kamis, 17 Oktober 2019

Netflix finally admits the obvious: Competition from Apple and Disney will hurt - MarketWatch

Bloomberg News/Landov
Apple Inc. is just one of many well-funded competitors looking to challenge Netflix Inc. in streaming video.

Netflix Inc. has been dismissive of the anticipated impact of an onslaught of streaming competitors, but as a wave of well-financed streaming services from big-name companies is about to be unleashed, the tone from executives has changed.

Through the years, Netflix NFLX, +0.71%  has insisted that “there is room for multiple parties to have attractive offerings” in streaming media, and that new competitors would not “materially affect our growth because the transition from linear to on-demand entertainment is so massive.” At the beginning of the year, as plans for competing streaming services were arriving rapidly, executives attempted to change the conversation by saying, “We compete with (and lose to) Fortnite more than HBO.”

From January: Netflix thinks ‘Fortnite’ is a bigger competitor than other streaming services

Netflix finally admitted the obvious when it reported third-quarter earnings Wednesday afternoon, though: At least in the short term, the arrival of a slew of new services from companies like Apple Inc. AAPL, -0.40%  and Walt Disney Co. DIS, +0.85%  is going to hurt its new-subscriber growth. The company expects that subscriber growth will decline year-over-year in the usually strong fourth quarter and for the entire year, even with a strong slate of new shows.

“The launch of these new services will be noisy,” Netflix executives said in their quarterly letter to shareholders. “There may be some modest headwind to our near-term growth, and we have tried to factor that into our guidance.”

In the analyst interview session, Netflix executives played down those comments. When asked about the change in tone toward the competitive landscape, Chief Financial Officer Spencer Neumann said “inevitably there will be some curiosity and some trial of those new service offerings.”

“Fundamentally, it is more of the same,” Netflix Chief Executive Reed Hastings responded. “Disney is going to be a great competitor, Apple is just beginning, but they will probably have some great shows too. But again, all of us are competing with linear TV. We are all small relative to linear TV.”

For more: Here comes the Netflix competition, with lots of fresh content

That sounds more similar to Netflix‘s long-held rhetoric that it expects to win in the long term as viewers transition en masse from a linear model to the on-demand streaming option that Netflix pioneered. As it has for years in mentioning competitors like Amazon Prime and Hulu, Netflix insisted that bringing more viewers into the streaming world will eventually help it secure a larger presence in a completely changed media environment.

“In our view, the likely outcome from the launch of these new services will be to accelerate the shift from linear TV to on-demand consumption of entertainment,” Netflix executives wrote, while specifically mentioning Disney+, Apple TV+, AT&T Inc.’s T, -0.29%  HBO Max and Comcast Corp.’s CMCSA, -0.15%  Peacock streaming services. “Just like the evolution from broadcast TV to cable, these once-in-a-generation changes are very large and open up big, new opportunities for many players.”

“We did well during the first decade of streaming,” executives wrote in closing out the “Competition” section of its quarterly letter. “We’re ready to compete to earn consumers’ attention and viewing.”

Netflix shares rose nearly 8% in after-hours trading following the results, and were up that amount in premarket trade Thursday, so investors must not have been surprised that executives tacitly admitted the obvious. They were likely relieved that Netflix’s subscriber growth bounced back from a shocking disappointment in the previous quarter.

See also: ‘Stranger Things’ fans are flocking to buy this item

The company’s actions could speak louder than its words, though. In addition to retracting its guidance for an annual increase in new paying customers this year, Netflix said it would stop projecting U.S. subscriber additions in future results, which does not bode well for growth in its biggest market. Netflix — which saw domestic subscribers decline in the second quarter for the first time in eight years and come in lighter than their projections in Wednesday’s results — will now only provide global membership forecasts, a twist on Apple’s move to stop breaking out iPhone unit sales.

It is never a good sign when companies stop offering information that they have long provided, or change their tune about the competitive landscape. In this case, though, Netflix appears to just be admitting the obvious: The next few months, at the very least, look like they will be tough for the company’s business in the U.S.

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-finally-admits-the-obvious-competition-from-apple-and-disney-will-hurt-2019-10-16

2019-10-17 10:53:00Z
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What to expect from the tentative agreement that could end GM strike - Fox Business

The United Auto Workers announced a potentially strike-ending tentative agreement with General Motors on Wednesday, and while its exact contents aren't known, it's expected to fix some of the key issues that caused autoworkers to walk off the job more than a month ago.

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The tentative agreement is expected to appease autoworkers who were concerned by GM's plan to idle the Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly Plant in Michigan by placing production of an electric truck there. Meanwhile, the fate of the shuttered plant in Lordstown, Ohio, is unknown.

TickerSecurityLastChangeChange %
GMGENERAL MOTORS COMPANY36.65+0.39+1.08%

The agreement is also expected to make a pathway for temporary workers to become permanent employees after three years of consecutive service to the company. The number of temporary workers on GM's payroll fluctuates, but they typically make up about 7% of its hourly workforce.

In addition, it is expected that GM agreed to back down from making workers pay for a larger share of their health insurance costs. GM autoworkers are responsible for an extremely low cut of their health insurance costs — 3%. GM wanted to up that share to 15%, which is basically half the amount the average American worker pays, but GM employees were not having it.

Picketing United Auto Workers Richard Rivera, left, and Robin Pinkney react to news of a tentative contract agreement with General Motors, in Langhorne, Pa., Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2019. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

GM's Mexico production was another sticking point in the negotiations. The company's decision to open and invest in plants in Mexico while closing others in the U.S. is a sticking point for many UAW members on strike.

The company is the largest auto employer in Mexico, which is now home to assembly plants for brands including Ford, Toyota and Honda.

Picketing United Auto Workers Richard Rivera, left, and Will Myatt react to news of a tentative contract agreement with General Motors, in Langhorne, Pa., Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2019. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

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Local UAW chapter leaders and the UAW GM National Council are expected to vote on the tentative agreement on Thursday. If they approve the deal, it will be up to rank-and-file members to ratify it. UAW members are remaining on strike as they await the results of Thursday's vote.

FOX Business' Grady Trimble contributed to this report.

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2019-10-17 10:20:29Z
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Deal keeps Detroit-Hamtramck open with electric pickup - Detroit Free Press

Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly Plant would remain open to produce an electric pickup under the proposed deal between the UAW and General Motors, according to people familiar with the tentative agreement.

The news Wednesday confirms earlier Free Press reporting that an electric pickup is slated for the plant closest to General Motors' headquarters at the Renaissance Center in downtown Detroit.

Additional details, including the number of electric pickups to be produced at D-Ham, as it's known locally, how many workers would be needed and when the plant would be retooled, were not immediately available. The fate of the tentative agreement is contingent on a positive ratification vote.

The 4-million-square-foot plant, which straddles the border of Detroit and Hamtramck, was among those slated to be "unallocated" in GM's surprise announcement on future product last year. However, the plant was not idled before the strike, and was still operating on an extension granted in February to produce the Cadillac CT6 and Chevrolet Impala. News about the future of other unallocated plants, such as the one in Lordstown, Ohio, was not available.

Workers on the picket line at D-Ham Wednesday who spoke to the Free Press before the electric pickup news was confirmed sounded pleased at the prospect of a new vehicle but were also wary about what it would mean for them. Automakers have been ramping up production plans for more electrification in their fleets, but EVs are still a fraction of the new vehicle market.

"Any product is a good product. Whether people are ready for an electric pickup ...," pondered Kurt Fiegel, 66, of Roseville, noting that "they didn't have much luck with the Volt."

The Chevy Volt, a plug-in hybrid, was made at D-Ham but was among a number of car models discontinued by GM, with production ending earlier this year. The company still has its all-electric Chevy Bolt, but that vehicle is a relatively low volume offering.

More: GM, UAW proposed tentative agreement's ratification bonus and vacation

More: GM, UAW tentative deal: Everything we know, what's next

More: UAW to boost strike pay to $275 per week

GM finds itself in competition on electric pickups with not just established players that have announced plans for them, but also newcomers, such as Rivian, which has generated lots of interest for its planned electric SUV and pickup.

Rivian, with which GM had reportedly been in talks at one point, has secured significant investments from Ford and Amazon. That company, with offices in Plymouth Township west of Detroit, on Sunday drew a crowd as it showed off its vehicles in Normal, Illinois, where it has its manufacturing plant.

Kristin Dziczek, vice president of industry, labor and economics at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, said details on production of any new electric vehicle will be key for D-Ham in part because of the competition.

"Everybody's got electric pickups coming in the next couple of years, even an electric F-150. They're all trying to get that out to market pretty soon," Dziczek said.

The depletion of $7,500 federal tax credits for buyers of electric vehicles from both GM and Tesla raises questions about the companies' abilities to maintain or grow electric vehicle demand as they face competitors that still retain the incentives, she said.

For D-Ham, another issue would be how many electric pickups would be built. If it's 50,000 or less, another product would likely be needed there, she said.

While many predict that electric vehicles are the future for the automotive industry, production of the vehicles themselves are expected to employ fewer workers because the vehicles have fewer parts. 

Getting the news

Word that a tentative agreement with GM had been reached came as Maurice Faust arrived for his four-hour picket shift in the midst of a cold drizzle at D-Ham at noon Wednesday.

"I just got it off my text as I was pulling up in my truck," said Faust, a 42-year GM veteran who lives in Southfield and has worked at the plant since 1997.

Faust, 63, is hopeful the deal will meet the needs of workers, but if not, he said he's prepared to stay on strike longer, noting his weather-appropriate jacket.

"If need be I'll do what I have to do," he said, noting the message behind the strike. "You've got to show them you can starve, just like they can starve."

The announcement of a proposed tentative agreement on the 31st day of the UAW's national strike against GM does not mean workers will automatically return to their jobs. The UAW National GM Council is set to meet Thursday to consider recommending the deal to the full membership and could either continue the strike pending ratification or stop it. 

D-Ham workers walking the picket line in their rain gear Wednesday sounded, like Faust, generally pleased with the news of a potential deal but insisted that certain issues, including job security and a path for temporary workers to become permanent, must be addressed. Several said they thought the presence of GM Chairman and CEO Mary Barra at recent negotiating sessions likely had an impact on talks. 

'Beautiful day to picket'

In spite of the rain, Fiegel said it was a "beautiful day to picket," as he considered the prospect of a settlement. He's three months away from retirement, but remains concerned about the other workers, including a son-in-law, who will deal with the results of any new contract. He'd like to see a better pension benefit, but also a better deal for temps, with some workers making half what others make and creating "an unhappy workplace."

For Kathy Faith, 48, of Casco, "seeing is believing."

While the news of a tentative agreement sounds promising, Faith wants to see details. Like her co-workers, she's also concerned about temporary workers.

"You work for a company for so long, that should count," said Faith, who works in the paint shop.

As for an electric pickup at the plant? That's a positive for Faith because it means D-Ham would stay open, but she also called it a win-lose situation because of the expectation of fewer workers.

If the plant were to get additional products beyond just an electric pickup, "it'd be wonderful," she said.

GM in general should make more products in U.S. plants, Faith said.

"We buy the products, we should be making the products," she said, noting that she means no disrespect to Mexican workers.

Contact Eric D. Lawrence: elawrence@freepress.com or (313) 223-4272. Follow him on Twitter: @_ericdlawrence.

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2019-10-17 10:00:00Z
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Is the G.M. Strike Over? 5 Key Questions, Answered - The New York Times

After a monthlong strike that has idled General Motors plants across the Midwest and South, union leaders will gather on Thursday in Detroit to consider a deal that could send the picketing autoworkers back to the assembly lines.

The details of the tentative agreement have not been announced, but the union, the United Automobile Workers, said it had “achieved major wins.” According to people familiar with the agreement, it includes wage increases and a formula for allowing temporary workers to become full-time employees.

But details about some of the most contentious issues in the negotiations, including the status of plants that G.M. planned to shut down, have yet to emerge. It was also unclear what commitments G.M. made about expanding domestic factory capacity or shifting production to the United States from Mexico, both union priorities.

An end to the strike would come as a relief to the trucking companies and auto suppliers that provide parts to G.M. Since the strike began on Sept. 15, suppliers have had to lay off or cut wages for tens of thousands of workers, as the economic ripple effects of the strike have spread from Canada to Mexico.

People familiar with the agreement said that it included a signing bonus higher than the $8,000 each worker received in the last contract in 2015, and that it would make no change to the employee share of health care contributions. They said workers would also get 3 percent wage increases in two of the four years of the contract and 4 percent lump-sum payments in the other two.

The deal would provide a formula for temporary workers to become full-fledged employees, they said, but they did not elaborate. The use of temporary employees, who make up 7 percent of the G.M. work force, was reportedly a sticking point in the talks, along with possible modifications to a two-tier wage system that paid less to more recent hires.

If officials of the union’s G.M. locals accept the tentative agreement on Thursday, they could call an immediate end to the strike. They could also continue the walkout until the deal is ratified by a majority of the 49,000 U.A.W. members employed by G.M.

Wiley Turnage, president of Local 22, which represents 700 workers at G.M.’s Detroit-Hamtramck plant, said he needed to review the details of the agreement before deciding whether to vote in favor of it on Thursday.

“It has to be fair to our members,” he said.

Ratification is not a foregone conclusion. The last time the U.A.W. negotiated a contract with G.M., approval was delayed for a month in part because the automaker’s skilled-trades workers rejected the terms.

One of the union’s main objectives was getting G.M. to reopen a car factory in Lordstown, Ohio, a goal that President Trump endorsed. G.M. closed that plant, and others in Baltimore and in Warren, Mich., as part of a cost-cutting effort that eliminated 2,800 factory jobs and thousands of white-collar positions.

Another sticking point was the automaker’s tiered wage structure: While workers who started with G.M. before 2007 earn about $31 an hour, most of those hired since then make much less, and so-called temporary workers are at the bottom of the scale at about $15 an hour.

Every day the strike continued, the economic ramifications spread throughout the auto supply chain, resulting in layoffs at factories that supply G.M. with parts and disrupting restaurants that rely on the patronage of autoworkers.

In Mexico and Canada, G.M. plants that depend on American factories have been shut down, putting thousands out of work. In Flint, Mich., at least 1,200 truckers and production employees from suppliers were out of work because of the strike, including hundreds from Lear, a supplier of seats to G.M.

The strike also cost the union, its members and G.M. hundreds of millions of dollars in lost dues, wages and revenue. In the United States, 34 G.M. plants went dark, forcing striking workers to make do with a $250-a-week subsidy from the union.

If the General Motors contract is ratified, the U.A.W. will turn its focus to Ford Motor or Fiat Chrysler. Contracts with those manufacturers expired on Sept. 14, but workers continued reporting to assembly lines while the union negotiated with G.M.

G.M. has a smaller U.A.W. work force than its Detroit rivals. But the union took aim at G.M. as the automaker has earned solid profits — it made $35 billion in North America over the last three years — while closing plants in the United States.

The U.A.W. is likely to try to reach similar terms with Ford and Fiat Chrysler, a standard practice known as pattern bargaining.

Neal E. Boudette contributed reporting.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/17/business/gm-strike-whats-next.html

2019-10-17 09:00:00Z
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