Rabu, 02 Oktober 2019

This could be the next gold mine for Tesla and other electric vehicles - MarketWatch

When people think about charging electric cars, the first thought that comes to mind is: “So you are going to put charging stations at gas stations. There will be long lines of people waiting to charge their cars, since it takes much longer to charge an electric car than to fill a car with gas. It will never work.”

Capitalism will take care of building out the charging infrastructure. My prediction: At some point there will be a charging-station mini-bubble as companies raise capital and do a land grab. Grocery stores will use charging stations to attract customers. Charging stations will be in all parking lots, from restaurants to office buildings. Electric vehicle (EV) charging will be a gold rush, while gas stations will be just another relic of a bygone age, like phone booths and cassette tapes. Future EV batteries will have greater range, last longer, and charge faster.

The transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) cars to electric vehicles is a bit like the transition our ancestors went through when society switched from horses to gasoline-powered cars. At first, people wondered how they would “feed” those cars (grass was more plentiful than gasoline), whether they would have decent roads to actually drive anywhere, and whether cars would be crashing into pedestrians and each other. The shift from horses to cars required a completely new paradigm.

The domain of horses came with an ecosystem that was simply not applicable when we switched to cars. Even though both performed the same function — horses got people and goods from point A to point B — the automobile was fundamentally different, and so was its ecosystem.

I imagine the 110,000 U.S. gas stations that keep ICE cars humming along today will look like a rounding error next to the millions of electric “filling stations” that one day will be located in home garages and public parking lots.

Batteries lead the charge

The engine in an EV, though it will incrementally improve over time, is less important than the battery, which is the most expensive single part of the vehicle and a highly complex one, too. The battery in an EV needs to be treated tenderly to maintain its charge and longevity. Your iPhone, for example, is optimized for duration of a charge but not for battery longevity. First of all, Apple AAPL, +0.28%   has an incentive to build planned obsolescence into its iPhone – it wants you to replace it every three years. Second, most iPhones don’t spend much time sitting outside in extremely hot or cold weather; they mostly remain in the comfort of your pocket, at a battery-friendly temperature. Not least, the cost of replacing a battery in your iPhone is less than $100, but replacing the battery in a Tesla TSLA, +1.59%  costs $10,000.

Read: Relax, Tesla drivers — thieves don’t want your electric cars

Plus: Here’s how to capitalize on the electric car revolution — without buying Tesla’s stock

Tesla doesn’t own the battery-cell technology that goes into its batteries; that belongs to its partner, Japanese conglomerate Panasonic PCRFY, +1.53% 6752, +0.09%  . Tesla designed the battery pack the enclosure that houses the battery cells) and the battery management system controller (computer) that routes and manages electricity flow and the microclimate of the battery cells.

The battery is a key technology for Tesla, but at the moment Panasonic is in control of a big part of it. Just as Apple chose to bring development of the CPU that powers its iPhone in-house, Tesla, which is vertically integrated, may eventually increase its control over its battery technology. The company’s purchase of Maxwell Technologies, which has a battery technology that may significantly lower the cost of cell manufacturing, is the first move toward independence from Panasonic.

On the one hand, this strategy has a great appeal because if Tesla is able to produce a better (more durable, lighter, longer-range, faster-charging) battery at a lower cost, it could become a source of a competitive advantage. Today Tesla doesn’t fully control its destiny when it comes to batteries, so if BMW BMW, -1.41%  decides to use Panasonic’s cells, Panasonic will gladly supply it. BMW would still have to develop its own battery management controller, though.

On the other hand, this vertical-integration strategy could backfire. If EV batteries turn into a commodity and the aforementioned features become ubiquitous, then the lowest-cost manufacturer wins. Tesla would argue that vertical integration will ultimately result in lower costs. The company has built a giant battery factory in Nevada that it calls the Gigafactory. When it is fully operational, the Gigafactory will be able to manufacture twice the quantity of lithium-ion batteries produced globally today. Tesla owns the building, and Panasonic owns the cell manufacturing equipment.

Traditional ICE automakers that are tiptoeing into EVs have taken a more conservative strategy and are relying on suppliers (LG Chem 051910, -2.63%    , Samsung SDI 006400, -2.22%  , and others) to produce a complete battery for them.

One of the biggest differences between the Tesla battery and the batteries used in other companies’ EVs (like the BMW i3, Chevy Volt GM, -3.66%  , and Jaguar i-PACE) is the metals they put in the cathode. Traditional car companies chose the NMC (nickel, manganese, cobalt) combination, while Tesla ended up making a less conservative choice of NCA (nickel, cobalt, aluminum). NCA offers long battery life, quick charging, and great performance. NMC, on the other hand, produces slightly less energy but is less volatile and withstands larger ranges and variations of temperature.

Tesla chose a more potent and more volatile cathode chemistry and elected to control its volatility by trying to manage the macroenvironment of the cells by a special design of the battery enclosure, in order to cool or warm the battery cells as needed. Each battery pack comes with an incredibly sophisticated battery management system that tracks the voltage and temperature of each cell and orchestrates which cells the Model 3 uses.

Lithium-ion batteries are a technology of the late 1980s. This was improved in the 1990s and the early part of this century at a somewhat slow pace (especially compared to semiconductors, which have followed Moore’s law, doubling in speed every 18 months). The rate of improvement has accelerated over the past decade (in large part thanks to Tesla), and the cost per kilowatt hour (kWh) declined to $127 in 2018 from $446 in 2013. The Tesla Model 3, for example, comes with a 75kWh battery, meaning the approximate cost of the battery has declined to $10,000 from $33,000.

From the perspective of how much it will likely evolve over the next decade or two, EV battery technology is still in its infancy. As we transition from ICE cars to EVs, the value of the prize will explode; tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars will be poured into improving the battery. Tesla, for example, has already gone through three reformulations of its battery. My $50,000 Tesla Model 3 has the latest version, which charges faster than the $90,000 Model X or the $80,000 Model S that Tesla sells today.

While in the short run battery technology is going to be an important differentiating factor, in the long run the EV battery will likely become a commodity and the differentiating factors will be in software and self-driving capability. An EV is a giant computer on wheels, and historically as computer hardware is commoditized, most of the remaining value is in the software.

How does one invest in this overvalued market? Our strategy is spelled out in this fairly lengthy article.   

Vitaliy Katsenelson is chief investment officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, which has no positions in any of the companies mentioned. He is the author of “Active Value Investing” (Wiley) and “The Little Book of Sideways Markets” (Wiley). Read more about how EVs will disrupt the auto industry, including whether Tesla and traditional automakers will survive in the long run, and who's right in the Tesla bull vs. bear debate.

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Read: 7 tips for buying your first electric vehicle

More: The best EVs and plug-in hybrids

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-could-be-the-next-gold-mine-for-tesla-and-other-electric-vehicles-2019-10-02

2019-10-02 09:20:00Z
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Johnson & Johnson reaches settlement with Ohio over opioid crisis - BBC News

Johnson & Johnson has agreed to a $20.4m (£16.6m) settlement with two counties in the US state of Ohio.

The healthcare giant said it was made to avoid a trial on allegations of fuelling opioid addiction in the state.

Johnson & Johnson said in a statement that the deal was not an admission of liability for the state's epidemic.

It is the fourth drugmaker to settle claims in Ohio amid more than 2,600 lawsuits by state and local governments against painkiller manufacturers.

Tuesday's announcement comes after a landmark ruling in August which ordered Johnson & Johnson to pay $572m (£468m) for its part in fuelling Oklahoma's opioid addiction crisis.

In a statement, Johnson & Johnson said it would pay $10m to Cuyahoga and Summit counties, and another $5m to cover their legal expenses.

Another $5.4m will be given to charities involved with opioid-related programs in the counties.

What is the opioid crisis?

Opioids are a group of drugs that range from codeine, to illegal drugs like heroin.

Prescription opioids are primarily used for pain relief. They can be highly addictive.

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On average, 130 Americans die from an opioid overdose every day, according to the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Opioids were involved in almost 400,000 overdose deaths in the US from 1999 to 2017, according to its research.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49903806

2019-10-02 07:06:50Z
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Global shares slip to one-month low after U.S. manufacturing shock - Yahoo Finance

Employees of the Tokyo Stock Exchange work at the bourse in Tokyo

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO (Reuters) - Global shares fell to one-month lows on Wednesday after U.S. manufacturing activity tumbled to more than a decade low, sparking worries that the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war is spreading to the U.S. economy.

A slowdown in U.S. economic growth would remove one of the few remaining bright spots in the global economy and come just as Europe is seen as close to falling into recession.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe <.MIWD00000PUS>, covering 49 markets, dipped 0.06% to a low last seen in early September, after shedding 0.83% in the previous session.

European shares are expected to drop, with European stock futures <STXEc1> <FDXc1> <FFIc1> trading down 0.2%-0.4%.

In Asia, MSCI's ex-Japan Asia-Pacific shares index <.MIAPJ0000PUS> dropped 0.6%, with Australian shares <.AXJO> falling 1.3% and South Korean shares shedding 1.5%. Japan's Nikkei <.N225> slid 0.4%. China markets are closed for a one-week holiday.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index <.HSI> was down 0.3% after a market holiday the previous day. The index fell as much as 1.2% in early trade. On Tuesday, Hong Kong police shot a teenage protester, the first to be hit by live ammunition in almost four months of unrest in the Chinese-ruled city.

Data on Hong Kong September retail sales is due later on Wednesday.

"Nothing other than a terrible number is conceivable here," ING chief Asia-Pacific economist Rob Carnell said in a note, adding that he was watching Hong Kong events "with a growing sense of despair."

Adding to tensions in Asia, North Korea carried out at least one more projectile launch on Wednesday, a day after it announced it will hold working-level talks with the United States at the weekend.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 <.SPX> lost 1.23% to hit four-week lows.

Selling was triggered after the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) index of factory activity, one of the most closely-watched data on U.S. manufacturing, dropped 1.3 points to 47.8, the lowest level since June 2009.

A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector. Markets had been expecting the index to rise back above 50.


(GRAPHIC: U.S. manufacturing - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/12/6830/6761/191002i.png)


The data came after euro zone manufacturing data showed the sharpest contraction in almost seven years.

"In terms of the outlook on manufacturing, U.S-China trade talks planned next week is everything. If that goes well, we could well see a V-shaped recovery in the ISM data in coming months," said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities.

"That means we can't just bet on a further decline in the U.S. economy now. On the whole I don't think we need to change our view that the U.S. economy remains relatively solid," he added.

The poor data lifted the Fed funds rate futures price sharply, with the November contract <FFX9> now pricing in about an 80% chance the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Oct. 30, compared to just over 50% before the data.

U.S. President Donald Trump once again lashed out at the Federal Reserve on Tuesday, saying the central bank has kept interest rates "too high" and that a strong dollar is hurting U.S. factories.

It is another question, however, whether the Fed will cut interest rates as hastily as Trump, and financial markets, want.

"We don't think the Fed will cut rates this month. The Fed will probably want to cut rates in December, looking at the strength of the economy around that time when new tariffs on China will set in," said Toshifumi Umezawa, strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

"Given divides in opinion among Fed policy makers, it will be difficult to come to the conclusion by this month," he added.

Just on Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the Fed can keep rates for now and there is scope to raise rates slightly over the next few years if the economy continues to grow.

In the currency market, the U.S. dollar slipped from Tuesday's two-year high against a basket of currencies as the ISM survey shook the notion that the U.S. economy will withstand the trade war.

The yen rose to 107.85 yen per dollar <JPY=>, from Tuesday's low of 108.47.

The euro stood at $1.0933 <EUR=>, having bounced off a near 2 1/2-year low of $1.0879 hit on Tuesday.

The Australian dollar fetched $0.6713 <AUD=D4>, having hit a 10 1/2-year low of $0.6672 the previous day after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates and expressed concern about job growth.

Gold rose to $1,479.80 per ounce <XAU=> from a two-month low of $1,459.50 hit on Tuesday on the back of a robust U.S. dollar.

The weak U.S. data pushed oil prices to near one-month lows, although a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories helped them to recoil in Asia.

Brent crude <LCOc1> futures rose 0.9% to $59.42 a barrel, after hitting a four-week low of $58.41 on Tuesday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude <CLc1> gained 1.4% to $54.36 per barrel after hitting a one-month low of $53.05.


(Reporting by Hideyuki Sano; additional reporting by Noah Sin in Hong Kong, editing by Richard Borsuk and Richard Pullin)

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-shares-one-month-low-011014683.html

2019-10-02 06:00:00Z
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Selasa, 01 Oktober 2019

Ford expects to book Q3 impairment charges of up to $900 million on India fixed assets - MarketWatch

Ford Motor Co. F, +0.88% said Tuesday it expects to book an impairment charge of $800 million to $900 million related to fixed assets in its India Automotive operations. The charge is required based on held-for-sale impairment testing conducted in connection with the pending sale of assets to a joint venture in India that Ford is creating with Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 500520, +1.71%, the company said in a regulatory filing. The charge will not result in cash expenditures, said the filing. Ford said it still expects about $11 billion in potential EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) charges for a global overhaul of its operations, with a negative cash effect of about $7 billion. Shares were not active premarket, but have gained 19.7% in 2019, while the S&P 500 SPX, +0.50% has gained 18.7%.

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ford-expects-to-book-q3-impairment-charges-of-up-to-900-million-on-india-fixed-assets-2019-10-01

2019-10-01 11:25:00Z
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Credit Suisse COO Resigns Over Surveillance Scandal - The Wall Street Journal

The surveillance of a former employee triggered a scandal for Credit Suisse. Photo: Stephen Kelly/Bloomberg News

Credit Suisse Group AG Chief Operating Officer Pierre-Olivier Bouée resigned after an internal probe found he ordered the surveillance of the bank’s former wealth-management chief by private investigators without discussing it with Chief Executive Tidjane Thiam or other senior bank officials.

His decision set off a scandal that has enveloped the bank for the past two weeks, triggering an internal investigation at Credit Suisse and dealing Mr. Thiam one of the more unusual challenges he has faced at the bank.

The resignation of Mr. Bouée, part of Mr. Thiam’s inner circle of senior management, is effective immediately, the Swiss bank said Tuesday as it announced the findings of its probe.

“The board of directors considers that the mandate for the observation of Iqbal Khan was wrong and disproportionate and has resulted in severe reputational damage to the bank,” it said.

The internal investigation, carried out by Swiss law firm Homburger, found that the operating chief ordered the bank’s head of global security services to start the observation of Mr. Khan.

The bank said Mr. Bouée made the surveillance decision alone, without discussing it with Mr. Thiam or other board members.

“The Homburger investigation did not identify any indication that the CEO had approved the observation of Iqbal Khan nor that he was aware of it prior to Sept. 18, 2019, after the observation had been aborted,” the bank said in a statement.

Questions about whether the botched surveillance would threaten Mr. Thiam’s position as CEO should be settled, Chairman Urs Rohner said Tuesday. He said the board was confident from the investigation that Mr. Thiam played no role in the embarrassing events, based on interviews and a review of private communications.

No evidence was found suggesting that Mr. Khan tried to poach employees or clients, it said. The bank’s head of global security services also resigned.

Mr. Bouée will be replaced as operating chief by James Walker, who has held several roles at the bank including finance chief of its U.S. subsidiaries.

Mr. Khan has joined Swiss bank UBS Group AG, where he is scheduled to start work Tuesday. Mr. Khan negotiated the unusually short so-called gardening leave with Mr. Rohner, also without the involvement of Mr. Thiam, The Wall Street Journal reported previously, citing people familiar with the matter.

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On Sept. 17 in Zurich, Mr. Khan spotted an investigator following him and went to take photos of the investigator and his car, according to people familiar with the events. Mr. Khan filed a complaint with police, and Zurich prosecutors last week said “temporary arrests” had been made as part of the resulting probe. Prosecutors said they opened a criminal investigation into possible assault and threat based on Mr. Khan’s complaint.

A consultant who helped the bank hire investigators to trail Mr. Khan died in an apparent suicide last week, a lawyer in Switzerland said Monday.

Credit Suisse directors confirmed his death and expressed their condolences at a press conference Tuesday.

Despite the bank’s shares losing about half their value since Mr. Thiam took over in 2015, big shareholders have largely welcomed his restructuring moves. He quickly ramped up Credit Suisse’s focus on selling investment and trading products to ultrawealthy clients. He promoted Mr. Khan, hired in 2013 as the finance chief of the wealth management arm, to run the bulk of that business internationally.

The relationship between Messrs. Thiam and Khan deteriorated noticeably over time, people who know them said. The Journal and other outlets reported in recent days about tensions between the two men, especially in the past year, stoked in part by Mr. Khan’s rising ambitions.

They flared close to home, too: In a tony neighborhood overlooking Lake Zurich, Mr. Khan and his family redeveloped a house next to Mr. Thiam’s. The two exchanged heated words at a party in January this year at Mr. Thiam’s house, after Mr. Khan raised concerns with Mr. Thiam’s girlfriend about trees on the Thiam property, according to people familiar with the matter.

Mr. Khan later had conversations with rival banks, including smaller rival Julius Baer Group Ltd., about leaving Credit Suisse for another job, stoking perceptions inside Credit Suisse that he wanted more power or could be looking to leave, people familiar with the matter said.

Credit Suisse on July 1 said Mr. Khan would leave the bank to pursue his career elsewhere. In a statement, Mr. Thiam wished him well. In late August, UBS named him co-head of wealth management.

Investigo, a small Zurich detective firm, in a statement provided to Credit Suisse and Swiss authorities last week said the firm’s mandate was to follow Mr. Khan at a distance and take pictures of people he met with.

Write to Jenny Strasburg at jenny.strasburg@wsj.com and Margot Patrick at margot.patrick@wsj.com

Copyright ©2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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2019-10-01 05:42:00Z
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Credit Suisse clears CEO in spying probe, COO Bouee to go - CNBC

A Swiss flag flies over a sign of Swiss bank Credit Suisse on May 8, 2014 in Bern.

FABRICE COFFRINI | AFP | Getty Images

Credit Suisse on Tuesday cleared Chief Executive Tidjane Thiam in an internal investigation into the botched surveillance of the bank's former wealth management head Iqbal Khan in a probe that cost Thiam's right-hand man his job.

Chief Operating Officer Pierre-Olivier Bouee resigned after the investigation by the Homburger law firm found he alone initiated observation of Khan, who abruptly left in July and later joined arch-rival UBS.

"The Board of Directors considers that the mandate for the observation of Iqbal Khan was wrong and disproportionate and has resulted in severe reputational damage to the bank," Switzerland's second-biggest bank said in a statement.

"The Homburger investigation did not identify any indication that the CEO had approved the observation of Iqbal Khan nor that he was aware of it prior to September 18, 2019, after the observation had been aborted," the bank said.

Two big shareholders had said they wanted Tidjane, architect of a sweeping three-year revamp at the bank he joined in 2015, to stay unless it was shown he broke the law.

Credit Suisse launched the enquiry to find out the circumstances that led to a confrontation in Zurich on Sept. 17 between Khan and private detectives that Credit Suisse had hired to tail him. 

"Neither the Homburger investigation nor the observation of Iqbal Khan identified any evidence that Iqbal Khan had attempted to poach employees or clients away from Credit Suisse, contrary to his contractual obligations," it said.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/credit-suisse-clears-ceo-in-spying-probe-coo-bouee-to-go.html

2019-10-01 05:34:11Z
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Mega mall owners mull investing in Forever 21 after bankruptcy - Fox Business

Two mall titans may invest in the bankrupt teen retailer Forever 21.

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The retailer filed for bankruptcy protection on Sunday morning and recently tried to cut a deal in which its two largest landlords, Brookfield Property and Simon Property, would take an ownership stake, according to the New York Post.

The reason, is Forever 21 uses a lot of mall space with its 541 stores. The nationwide closure of 178 locations would leave big holes at shopping malls.

Negotiations between the retailer, Brookfield, and Simon are considered dead for now as they reached an impasse over the weekend.

Reps for Simon, Brookfield and Forever 21 didn’t respond to requests for comment by The Post.

Forever 21 is planning to close 350 of its 800 stores worldwide, including most of its operations in Asia and Europe, according to court documents.

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Three years ago, Simon and mall operators GGP,  which is now owned by Simon, rescued teen chain Aeropostale out of bankruptcy rather than face 740 stores going dark.

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https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/mega-mall-owners-mull-investing-in-forever-21-after-bankruptcy

2019-10-01 05:32:27Z
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