Travel chaos after blaze on tracks near London Victoria - ITV News

Commuters in London are still facing major delays this morning after a fire broke out near the tracks between Clapham and Victoria.

Southern and Gatwick Express trains could not run to or from London Victoria due to the fire, with lines reopening around 8am after fire crews put out the blaze.

But "heavy residual delays" still remain as commuters were advised to avoid travelling to Victoria at all, Southern said.

Southern Rail added: "overall journey times may still be extended by up to 60 minutes."

It comes as almost 100 of British Airways flights departing from London airports are also cancelled after computer issues affected its check-in system.

National Rail said rail services will divert to London Bridge where possible, with travellers advised to Thameslink or other Southern services where available.

Tickets can be used for alternative transport on London buses, some Thameslink services, and the London Underground.

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https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-07/travel-chaos-after-blaze-on-tracks-near-london-victoria/

2019-08-07 10:47:00Z
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What’s at Risk if the U.S. Stumbles Into a Currency War - The New York Times

When the United States declared China a currency manipulator on Monday, long-building trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies spread to the combustible realm of currencies — with potentially huge consequences for the global financial system should the escalation continue.

Did China allow the value of the yuan to fall against the dollar simply to allow it to better match the nation’s economic situation, as the country’s leaders and many international economists argue? Or was it, as President Trump contends, an effort to give Chinese exporters an unfair advantage in trade?

That clash reflects Mr. Trump’s rejection of the consensus of global economic policymakers. That consensus says countries should be free to set monetary policies aimed at generating sustained growth, even if that causes their currency to depreciate. And they should be free to manage their exchange rates so long as they keep those rates broadly in line with their economic fundamentals.

The conflict also reflects the president’s singular focus on reducing trade deficits, which he has argued make the United States a loser in the global trade system. But waging a currency war could come at a big cost.

“I worry it further undermines the international framework that has supported decades of faster growth,” said Kristin Forbes, an economist at M.I.T. and a former official of the U.S. Treasury and the Bank of England. “Exchange rates are the shock absorber in the global economy.”

There have been international strains over currency valuations for years, all the more so in a world in which all the major economies are coping with sluggish growth. But the newest currency frictions are different.

Up until now, countries have been focused on stimulating their domestic economies. In particular, central banks have cut interest rates and taken other steps to pump money into their financial systems. That tends to lower the value of their currency. After all, investing in a currency with lower interest rates is less attractive, all else equal, than in one with higher rates.

But the conventional wisdom among international economists is that this doesn’t count as currency manipulation. It’s not a game in which one country’s win means another must lose. Lower interest rates should generate more economic activity, which makes the whole world better off.

The Trump administration has introduced a zero-sum approach to global currency policy — envisioning a loser for every winner — that violates the spirit of those rules.

In that sense, the latest moves risk upsetting a relatively stable order, creating unpredictable ripple effects. When currencies swing wildly, they can pull along the economies of some of the most powerful nations, such as by crushing entire sectors of the economy that find themselves uncompetitive after a swing in global exchange rates.

And it could undermine the central role the United States has played in the international financial system, especially if the accusations of manipulation are followed up with concrete retaliation to try to artificially depress the value of the dollar.

“The dollar being the primary global currency has enormous benefits for the U.S., but with the side effect that when the U.S. tries to depreciate, there are limits on how much it can do that,” said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “But if the U.S. abuses its privilege too much by bullying, there will eventually be a switch.”

The decision to name China a currency manipulator does not, in and of itself, do much. But it could be followed up with pressure on the International Monetary Fund and other nations to make similar findings and lean on the Chinese to adjust their policies. Or it could lead to direct intervention in foreign exchange markets by the United States Treasury.

This is not the first time President Trump has accused a major trading partner of using currency policy to mistreat the United States.

He assailed the European Central Bank for moving toward monetary stimulus in June — complaining on Twitter that the resulting drop in the value of the euro was “making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA.”

The European Central Bank explained its stimulus as an effort to keep Europe from sliding back into recession. When the central bank first undertook its “quantitative easing” policies, it was with encouragement from the Obama administration, which believed a stronger European economy was ultimately good for the U.S. economy, despite its effect on currencies.

Similarly, the Trump administration’s decision Monday to name China a currency manipulator — for allowing the value of its currency to fall — does not align with how mainstream economists view China’s move.

With the economy slowing in China, in part because of the trade wars, market forces tend to push its currency lower. But the People’s Bank of China has defended the currency from big drops, aiming to prevent capital from flowing out of the country or destabilizing the world economy.

The “manipulation” that took place Monday morning wasn’t artificially depressing the Chinese currency to seize advantage with trade partners, but engaging in less manipulation in order to allow it to fall closer to its market-determined rate.

There is a more nuanced case to be made against Chinese currency policy — that it did intervene for years to push down the value of its currency, ending in the early 2010s, and that Chinese economic might was built on an unfair practice. But the Trump administration’s announcement focuses on the more recent actions, in which different economic rationales apply.

There is also a paradox for President Trump. Because of the dollar’s unique role as the global reserve currency, when panic sets in overseas, money tends to flow into United States Treasury bonds, which are viewed as the safest assets on earth. But that movement tends to prop up the value of the dollar and push overseas currencies lower.

In other words, the more chaos he injects into the global economy by trying to pressure China, Europe and others to depreciate their currencies, the more upward pressure there will be on the dollar, undermining those efforts.

That is potentially the worst of both worlds. When the dollar rises on currency markets because the United States economy is booming, it may be hard on American export industries, but at least it takes place in the context of strong growth.

But for the dollar to surge because of a global economic troubles, it means exporters suffer at the same time that the overall economy is under pressure. A particularly extreme example of this happened in the fall of 2008, when the United States economy was in free fall and yet the dollar rose because of the global financial crisis.

A habit of the Trump administration has been to link seemingly unrelated items in its dealings with other countries — using tariff threats to try to influence Mexican immigration policy, for example.

If the Trump administration continues down the path of using currency policy to try to bludgeon China over trade, technology and national security issues, it will signal a remarkable expansion into a policy area that has been a source of stability in recent decades.

“It’s dangerous to start a currency war because you don’t know where it will end,” said Eric Winograd, chief U.S. economist at AllianceBernstein. “We’ve seen with the trade war that it started in one place, and ended up much broader. There’s every risk a currency war will do the same.”

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/07/upshot/risk-currency-war-china.html

2019-08-07 09:00:39Z
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China's yuan could weaken past 7.5 per dollar if Trump hikes tariffs further, strategist warns - CNBC

U.S. banknotes and Chinese yuan notes.

Paul Yeung | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The yuan may weaken beyond 7.5 against the U.S. dollar if President Donald Trump kicks tariffs up to 25% on the recently threatened $300 billion of Chinese goods, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

China's currency has gotten greater attention in recent days after Beijing allowed the yuan to weaken past the important psychological level of 7 per dollar for the first time since the global financial crisis.

That depreciation came after Trump threatened to slap 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese goods starting Sept. 1. If that goes ahead, the U.S. dollar-Chinese yuan exchange rate may touch 7.3 by the end of 2019, weaker than an earlier forecast of 6.63, the BofAML predicted.

If that tariff rate increases to 25%, "you'll be looking at CNY beyond 7.5 levels" assuming existing economic and financial conditions don't change, Rohit Garg, a currency and rates strategist at the bank, said Wednesday.

China's move tells you that the U.S. doesn't have all the balls in this game, the Chinese can mess up this dollar weakening desire of Donald Trump very easily.

Taimur Baig

chief economist, DBS

Many analysts have said they expect Trump to hike tariffs on all Chinese goods to 25% after the recent escalation in the U.S.-China fight. Such an elevated tariff rate would hurt sentiment further and the U.S. Federal Reserve would likely step in to stem some negativity, Garg told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

The Fed "would sound more dovish, it would actually go ahead and cut rates," he said. That means it may be "difficult for the dollar to actually rally as much," he added.

Washington has already applied a 25% tariff on $250 billion of Chinese goods and labeled China a currency manipulator as the two economic giants battle in areas of trade, technology and now foreign exchange. For its part, Beijing imposed elevated tariffs on billions of dollars of U.S. goods and said it will stop buying American agriculture products.

US dollar strength

The U.S. has for years accused China of keeping the yuan artificially low to gain advantage in trade — an issue Trump has been complaining about since he became president. Last month, Trump suggested the U.S. should "MATCH" the "big currency manipulation game" taken by China and Europe.

But by ratcheting up rhetoric and tariffs against China, Trump has caused the U.S. dollar to strengthen even more compared to the yuan and other currencies, said Taimur Baig, chief economist at Singaporean bank DBS.

The U.S. dollar index — which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies — has risen by around 1.4% this year.

"That's the irony of it all: The more grenades Donald Trump throws to give the U.S. a competitive advantage, the more risk off we see and more safe haven flows go into the U.S. and Treasury rallies and the dollar remains strong," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday.

The Fed lowering interest rates or Washington intervening in the currency markets could help to contain the greenback's strength, but both options "will have far less impact on the dollar than just the end of the trade war," said Baig.

"If there were some sort of resolution that the actions between the Chinese and Americans will lead to a smaller surplus between the U.S. and China, to me, that would be the most powerful driver of a weaker dollar," he said.

"But that is not at all the way the narrative is playing out right now," he added. "China's move tells you that the U.S. doesn't have all the balls in this game, the Chinese can mess up this dollar weakening desire of Donald Trump very easily."

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/07/chinese-yuan-may-weaken-past-7point5-per-us-dollar-on-25percent-tariff-bofaml.html

2019-08-07 07:03:35Z
52780345840537

China's yuan could weaken past 7.5 per dollar if Trump hikes tariffs further, strategist warns - CNBC

U.S. banknotes and Chinese yuan notes.

Paul Yeung | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The yuan may weaken beyond 7.5 against the U.S. dollar if President Donald Trump kicks tariffs up to 25% on the recently threatened $300 billion of Chinese goods, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

China's currency has gotten greater attention in recent days after Beijing allowed the yuan to weaken past the important psychological level of 7 per dollar for the first time since the global financial crisis.

That depreciation came after Trump threatened to slap 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese goods starting Sept. 1. If that goes ahead, the U.S. dollar-Chinese yuan exchange rate may touch 7.3 by the end of 2019, weaker than an earlier forecast of 6.63, the BofAML predicted.

If that tariff rate increases to 25%, "you'll be looking at CNY beyond 7.5 levels" assuming existing economic and financial conditions don't change, Rohit Garg, a currency and rates strategist at the bank, said Wednesday.

China's move tells you that the U.S. doesn't have all the balls in this game, the Chinese can mess up this dollar weakening desire of Donald Trump very easily.

Taimur Baig

chief economist, DBS

Many analysts have said they expect Trump to hike tariffs on all Chinese goods to 25% after the recent escalation in the U.S.-China fight. Such an elevated tariff rate would hurt sentiment further and the U.S. Federal Reserve would likely step in to stem some negativity, Garg told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

The Fed "would sound more dovish, it would actually go ahead and cut rates," he said. That means it may be "difficult for the dollar to actually rally as much," he added.

Washington has already applied a 25% tariff on $250 billion of Chinese goods and labeled China a currency manipulator as the two economic giants battle in areas of trade, technology and now foreign exchange. For its part, Beijing imposed elevated tariffs on billions of dollars of U.S. goods and said it will stop buying American agriculture products.

US dollar strength

The U.S. has for years accused China of keeping the yuan artificially low to gain advantage in trade — an issue Trump has been complaining about since he became president. Last month, Trump suggested the U.S. should "MATCH" the "big currency manipulation game" taken by China and Europe.

But by ratcheting up rhetoric and tariffs against China, Trump has caused the U.S. dollar to strengthen even more compared to the yuan and other currencies, said Taimur Baig, chief economist at Singaporean bank DBS.

The U.S. dollar index — which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies — has risen by around 1.4% this year.

"That's the irony of it all: The more grenades Donald Trump throws to give the U.S. a competitive advantage, the more risk off we see and more safe haven flows go into the U.S. and Treasury rallies and the dollar remains strong," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday.

The Fed lowering interest rates or Washington intervening in the currency markets could help to contain the greenback's strength, but both options "will have far less impact on the dollar than just the end of the trade war," said Baig.

"If there were some sort of resolution that the actions between the Chinese and Americans will lead to a smaller surplus between the U.S. and China, to me, that would be the most powerful driver of a weaker dollar," he said.

"But that is not at all the way the narrative is playing out right now," he added. "China's move tells you that the U.S. doesn't have all the balls in this game, the Chinese can mess up this dollar weakening desire of Donald Trump very easily."

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/07/chinese-yuan-may-weaken-past-7point5-per-us-dollar-on-25percent-tariff-bofaml.html

2019-08-07 07:02:55Z
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China blinks first. Now US stocks are bouncing back - CNN

China priced the yuan's reference rate at 6.9683 to the dollar on Tuesday, a hair above the key 7:1 ratio to the US dollar. Although that was the weakest level for the yuan in 11 years, many Wall Street investors feared China would price the yuan below that psychological 7:1 barrier.

The managed yuan continued to slide Tuesday, but the pace of its decline slowed. One dollar last bought $7.0200 yuan in China, anld 7.0490 yuan in the offshore market, where the currency trades more freely.

Late Monday. the United States labeled China a currency manipulator.

But the sentiment is better nonetheless.

The Dow (INDU) traded more than 200 points, or 0.8%, higher Tuesday morning, while the S&P 500 (SPX) bounced 0.9% higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP), which was hit worst in Monday's selloff, traded 1.3% higher.

Stock investors also took comfort in the Chinese central bank announcing plans to issue central bank bills worth 30 billion yuan next week. That supported China's currency, which bounced back slightly against the dollar after the announcement.

"Also supporting the markets is probably bargain hunting of companies with good fundamentals and short-covering elsewhere," wrote Forex.com technical analyst Fawad Razaqzada in a note.

Asian stocks closed lower, while European stocks are recovering somewhat Tuesday.

China devalued its currency on Monday, leading it to fall below a key threshold that had last been breached during the financial crisis. Global stocks sold off in response and the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite logged their worst day of 2019. The Nasdaq was the worst hit, because tech stocks would be hit particularly hard by an escalation in the trade war.

But now markets are calming down.

Investors feared the label would eliminate China's incentive to keep the yuan above the 7:1 ratio to the dollar, setting off a currency war with the United States. A further devaluation of the yuan could ease the burden of America's tariffs on China. Wall Street fears a steep drop in the yuan could escalate the trade war, prompting the United States to raise its tariffs on China or intervene in the value of the US dollar.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/06/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html

2019-08-06 14:14:00Z
52780345840537

China blinks first. Now US stocks are bouncing back - CNN

China priced the yuan's reference rate at 6.9683 to the dollar on Tuesday, a hair above the key 7:1 ratio to the US dollar. Although that was the weakest level for the yuan in 11 years, many Wall Street investors feared China would price the yuan below that psychological 7:1 barrier.

The managed yuan continued to slide Tuesday, but the pace of its decline slowed. One dollar last bought $7.0200 yuan in China, and 7.0490 yuan in the offshore market, where the currency trades more freely.

Late Monday. the United States labeled China a currency manipulator.

But the sentiment is better nonetheless.

The Dow (INDU) traded more than 200 points, or 0.8%, higher Tuesday morning, while the S&P 500 (SPX) bounced 0.9% higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP), which was hit worst in Monday's selloff, traded 1.2% higher.

Stock investors also took comfort in the Chinese central bank announcing plans to issue central bank bills worth 30 billion yuan next week. That supported China's currency, which bounced back slightly against the dollar after the announcement.

"Also supporting the markets is probably bargain hunting of companies with good fundamentals and short-covering elsewhere," wrote Forex.com technical analyst Fawad Razaqzada in a note.

Asian stocks closed lower, while European stocks are recovering somewhat Tuesday.

China devalued its currency on Monday, leading it to fall below a key threshold that had last been breached during the financial crisis. Global stocks sold off in response and the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite log their worst day of 2019. The Nasdaq was the worst hit, because tech stocks would be hit particularly hard by an escalation in the trade war.

But now markets are calming down.

Investors feared the label would eliminate China's incentive to keep the yuan above the 7:1 ratio to the dollar, setting off a currency war with the United States. A further devaluation of the yuan could ease the burden of America's tariffs on China. Wall Street fears a steep drop in the yuan could escalate the trade war, prompting the United States to raise its tariffs on China or intervene in the value of the US dollar.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/06/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html

2019-08-06 13:24:00Z
CAIiEL5ccleJ60aqaPJjeiaXQ34qGQgEKhAIACoHCAowocv1CjCSptoCMPrTpgU

China blinks first. Now US stocks are bouncing back - CNN

China priced the yuan's reference rate at 6.9683 to the dollar, a hair above the target 7:1 ratio to the US dollar. Although that was the weakest level for the yuan in 11 years, many Wall Street investors feared China would price the yuan below that psychological 7:1 barrier.

The yuan, which trades more freely outside China, continued to fall below the barrier on the open market (to 7.07 to the dollar), but investors were still encouraged that the damage wasn't considerably worse.

Stock futures also got a boost after the Chinese central bank announced plans to issue central bank bills worth 30 billion yuan next week. That supported China's currency, which bounced back slightly against the dollar after the announcement.

Futures erased an earlier 600-point plunge. Stock futures initially tumbled Monday evening after the United States labeled China a currency manipulator.

Investors feared the label would eliminate China's incentive to keep the yuan above the 7:1 ratio to the dollar, setting off a currency war with the United States. A further devaluation of the yuan could ease the burden of America's tariffs on China. Wall Street fears a steep drop in the yuan could escalate the trade war, prompting the United States to raise its tariffs on China.

Dow (INDU) futures implied the market would open slightly higher. The S&P 500 (SPX) futures rose 0.8% and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were up 0.9%.

US stocks posted their worst day of 2019 on Monday, with the Dow plunging 767 points. The Nasdaq was the worst hit, because tech stocks would be hit particularly hard by an escalation in the trade war.

European stocks recovered somewhat Tuesday, and Asian stocks closed a bit lower.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/06/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html

2019-08-06 12:24:00Z
CAIiEL5ccleJ60aqaPJjeiaXQ34qGQgEKhAIACoHCAowocv1CjCSptoCMPrTpgU