Kamis, 01 Agustus 2019

Burger King takes the Impossible Whopper nationwide August 8th - Engadget

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Burger King announced today that it is adding the Impossible Whopper -- the chain's famous Whopper burger made with a plant-based patty from Impossible Foods -- to its menu nationwide. Starting on August 8th, you'll be able to go to any Burger King location in the United States and get your hands on the alternative meat burger.

The nationwide expansion comes after several successful tests in smaller markets. Burger King initially introduced the Impossible Whopper in April of this year as part of a trial run in St. Louis. The company then added the burger to the menu of its locations in San Francisco, Las Vegas, Miami, Baltimore, Columbus, Georgia and Montgomery, Alabama. According to a report from inMarket, Burger King locations with the Impossible Whopper saw significantly more traffic than the company's national average after introducing the plant-based burger.

In addition to taking the Impossible Whopper nationwide, Burger King is partnering with DoorDash to deliver the burger directly to people's homes. From August 8th to September 1st, DoorDash will deliver the Impossible Whopper with a $0 delivery fee. Users can also order the Impossible Taste Test -- an Impossible Whopper and original meat-based Whopper -- for $7 with no additional delivery fee. To enjoy the fee-free delivery, users can use the promotional code IMPOSSIBLE at checkout on DoorDash.

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https://www.engadget.com/2019/08/01/impossible-burger-whopper-burger-king-nationwide-august-8/

2019-08-01 15:06:24Z
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Economists who predicted the rate cut are now utterly confused about what the Fed does next - CNBC

Major Wall Street economists were largely in agreement that the Federal Reserve would cut rates by a quarter point heading into the second day of its two-day meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

But after a confusing news conference by the Fed chief, their forecasts for future rate policy are now all over the place.

The Fed cut its key interest rate by a quarter-point for the first time since 2008. But then Powell said after that this was just a "midcycle adjustment," causing the stock market to drop and rates to firm.

"If the Chair could not pull the Committee to 50bp (basis points) today or even a strongly dovish tilt, we see it as unlikely that he can pull them to cuts in subsequent meetings," UBS economist Seth Carpenter said. "Further cuts possible but not likely."

Still yet other economists varied between one or two more rate cuts going forward this year.

"Given today's Fed decision and guidance, we remain comfortable with our view that the Fed will provide two more 25bp cuts this year (September and October)," Bank of America said.

"[Wednesday's] policy action should be viewed as an 'insurance' rate cut," Wells Fargo economist Jay Bryson said.

"We continue to look for one additional 25 bps rate cut, probably at the October 30 policy meeting," he said.

Looking ahead, it will really be all about the "data" according to J.P. Morgan economists.

"We still look for one more easing in September, and continue to believe that, unlike today's meeting, the call on September depends on all of the data. While today's move was motivated by global growth, trade policy and inflation developments, we expect September's decision will also depend on domestic growth developments," they said.

Here's what the major Wall Street economists said about the Fed's latest move:

Bank of America

"Today's guidance suggests Fed will likely provide additional accommodation in coming meetings to support inflation and offset the downside risks in the outlook. They will likely put more emphasis on global economic conditions as they appear to be worried about the potential spillover effects from weakening global growth through weaker US manufacturing activity. Given today's Fed decision and guidance, we remain comfortable with our view that the Fed will provide two more 25bp cuts this year (September and October)."

Credit Suisse

"One modest dovish surprise is the early end to balance sheet run-off. The FOMC kept the door open for future cuts, but Chair Powell downplayed the likelihood of a prolonged easing cycle. We continue to expect that this will be the only rate cut and policy will be on hold for the rest of 2019."

Nomura

"While the FOMC's decisions and its statement were largely in line with what was expected, Chair Powell's press conference generated a notable repricing of many financial markets. Chair Powell said that today's action was a "mid-cycle adjustment" to policy and not the beginning of a "lengthy cutting cycle."

Morgan Stanley

"While this may not be the start of a full easing cycle as Chair Powell underscored, we expect the FOMC will deliver one additional 25bp rate cut before year end, and our base case is that the next rate cut will come at the October 29-30 FOMC meeting. Thereafter, we expect policy will remain on hold."

Goldman Sachs

"The FOMC statement introduced a bit more ambiguity about a possible second cut in September by slightly watering down its "act as appropriate" policy guidance. In the press conference, Powell said that the FOMC intends its
"mid-cycle adjustment" to "adjust policy to a somewhat more accommodative stance over time," language we see as consistent with our expectation that easing will end with a second 25bp cut. We continue to see a 55% chance of a 25bp cut in September, a 5% chance of a 50bp cut, and a 40% chance of no cut. We see an 80% cumulative probability of another cut at some point this year."

Read more about this call here.

Bernstein

"The FOMC's first rate cut in over a decade – fully expected and priced in – completes the Fed's abandonment of the "star" framework and highlights its lack of a new policy narrative. We continue to view monetary policy through the lens of the "whimsy" Fed, i.e. a lack of independence from markets: intimidated by tighter financial conditions if it pushed back against market expectations (a small version of which was seen during the press conference yesterday), the Fed is forced to follow them instead. In this sense, more cuts are in the cards unless the Fed is bailed out by very strong fundamental data."

J.P. Morgan

"Fed events may have given risk markets a little indigestion, but they also bought the Fed a little more flexibility going into the next FOMC meeting. We still look for one more easing in September, and continue to believe that, unlike today's meeting, the call on September depends on all of the data. While today's move was motivated by global growth, trade policy and inflation developments, we expect September's decision will also depend on domestic growth developments."

Wells Fargo

"We continue to look for one additional 25 bps rate cut, probably at the October 30 policy meeting. Today's policy action should be viewed as an "insurance" rate cut. In the context of uncertainties about the economic outlook and below-target inflation, easier policy seems to be warranted. In our view, another 25 bps rate cut would constitute additional "insurance" against a more pronounced slowdown."

UBS

"The FOMC cut 25bp; further cuts possible but not likely. The statement clearly leaves open the door for future rate cuts if the domestic data were to deteriorate, but there was precious little indication of a strong desire for more immediate action. The two dissents were expected and do not give much signal on future action....If the Chair could not pull the Committee to 50bp today or even a strongly dovish tilt, we see it as unlikely that he can pull them to cuts in subsequent meetings. That said, data are volatile; a few bad prints between now and September could intensify extant fears and lead to another 25bp cut in September."

Citi

"The developments of the July FOMC were hawkish relative to very dovish market expectations – but consistent with our base case for just a 50bp total downward adjustment in policy rates. We continue to think that strong domestic data will mean that the FOMC does not embark on a full cut cycle and expect just one further 25bp cut in 2019, most likely in September."

Deutsche Bank

"While policy outcomes going forward will be driven by data and events, we think the bar for the Committee to remain on hold in September is relatively high. In particular, to not cut the Committee will likely need to see notable improvements on the various headwinds they have emphasized – slowing global growth and trade uncertainties – and evidence that inflation pressures are building more rapidly than anticipated. These pre-conditions are unlikely to be in place by the next FOMC meeting. Further, global headwinds are likely to persist in the months beyond, with increasing evidence of spillovers to the domestic economy. As such, we maintain our expectation for two more cuts this year in September and December."

Barclays

"In our view, the Fed signaled a willingness to enact further policy rate cuts to support the outlook. The Fed faced two communication challenges today. First, it had to signal that it had not lost confidence in the outlook, but saw a reason to adjust the policy stance in light of downside risks. We felt this was accomplished. Second, it had to signal to markets that further rate reductions are likely to be appropriate while also retaining some optionality and an adherence to a data-dependent mantra. Communicating forward guidance was clearly more challenging, as markets appeared to struggle with Powell's characterization of a "mid-cycle" adjustment in the policy stance and prolonged rate cut cycle driven by recession risk."

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/wall-street-economists-react-to-the-feds-latest-move.html

2019-08-01 12:57:33Z
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Jeff Bezos Sells $2 Billion of Amazon Stock After 4% Stake Transfer - Yahoo Finance

(Bloomberg) -- MacKenzie Bezos is officially Amazon.com Inc.’s second-largest individual shareholder.

About 19.7 million shares are now registered in 49-year-old MacKenzie’s name, according to regulatory filings detailing stock sales by her ex-husband, Jeff Bezos. The transfer is a rare disclosure for a divorce whose financial terms have otherwise been shielded from the public. A King County, Washington, judge had signed an order formalizing the separation on July 5.

Bezos sold 968,148 shares for about $1.8 billion between July 29 and July 31 as part of his stock-sale plan, the filings show.

MacKenzie’s 4% holding is worth $37 billion, enough to place her 23rd on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a ranking of the world’s 500 richest people. The value of her stake has fallen by $1 billion since April, when the settlement was first disclosed. Bezos, 55, the founder and chief executive officer of the world’s largest online retailer and web-services company, retains a 12% stake worth $109 billion and remains the world’s wealthiest person.

The value of the transfer makes it the world’s most expensive divorce. While Oracle Corp.’s Larry Ellison has been through multiple breakups, none has affected his ownership in the software maker. Likewise, Google co-founder Sergey Brin’s stake remained unchanged after he and Anne Wojcicki divorced in 2015.

To contact the reporters on this story: Tom Metcalf in London at tmetcalf7@bloomberg.net;Matt Day in Seattle at mday63@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Pierre Paulden at ppaulden@bloomberg.net, Steven Crabill, Steve Dickson

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeff-bezos-sells-2-billion-120611839.html

2019-08-01 13:54:00Z
CBMiSGh0dHBzOi8vZmluYW5jZS55YWhvby5jb20vbmV3cy9qZWZmLWJlem9zLXNlbGxzLTItYmlsbGlvbi0xMjA2MTE4MzkuaHRtbNIBUGh0dHBzOi8vZmluYW5jZS55YWhvby5jb20vYW1waHRtbC9uZXdzL2plZmYtYmV6b3Mtc2VsbHMtMi1iaWxsaW9uLTEyMDYxMTgzOS5odG1s

Markets go for a ride as Powell tried to communicate next steps on rates - Yahoo Finance

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell fielded a number of questions on Wednesday after policymakers lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, strapping markets in for a roller coaster ride through the close.

At its lowest point during the day, the Dow was down more than 400 points as investors tried to figure out what Powell’s commentary meant for future rate moves.

The S&P 500 (GSPC), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and Nasdaq composite (IXIC) were quiet heading into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference but moved wildly as Powell fielded questions about where rates go from here.

Here is a rough timeline of key points communicated by the Fed and Chairman Powell throughout the afternoon on Wednesday.

2:00 p.m.

The Fed announces that it cut its target interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 2% to 2.25%, citing a need for accommodation amid “global developments” and “muted” inflationary pressures.

The Federal Open Market Committee statement says the Fed also decided to end its balance sheet normalization process two months early. Since 2017, the Fed has been unwinding assets that it accumulated to battle the financial crisis. The Fed had originally planned on stopping “quantitative tightening” at the end of September.

The Dow Jones twitches by about 100 points but bounces back as markets wait for Powell to take the podium. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury slips from 2.04 to 2.01% in the next 20 minutes.

2:30 p.m.

Powell opens with a statement saying that the Fed still sees a “favorable” outlook for the U.S. economy but opted to lower rates to “support that outlook” for three reasons: insuring against further slowing global growth, countering the slowing impacts already affecting the U.S., and spurring inflation closer to its 2% target.

Powell says there were positive and negative developments in data received since the FOMC’s last meeting on June 19. GDP and job growth were positives, foreign growth and falling business fixed investment at home were negatives.

2:36 p.m.

Powell gets a question on whether or not 25 basis points is strong enough to return inflation to the Fed’s target and what developments may require the Fed to cut again.

“The committee is really thinking of this as a way to adjusting policy to a somewhat more accommodative stance,” Powell says before referencing the three reasons he mentioned in his opening remarks. “We’re thinking of it as essentially in the nature of a mid-cycle adjustment.”

Markets start turning, and the Dow, which headed into the opening statement around 27,162, slips 100 points in the next few minutes.

2:43 p.m.

Powell describes 25 basis points as “a bit of an insurance” cut, adding during another answer that different members of the committee saw different conditions in the economy that warranted a need for a 25 basis point cut. Two voting members, Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren and Kansas City Fed’s Esther George, dissented because they would have preferred holding rates steady at the previous level of 2.25% to 2.5%.

Powell says Fed had signaled that it was watching changing financial conditions closely over the past few months.

“I don’t think asking about a quarter-point is really the right question. I think you have to look at the course of the year and see the committee moving away from rate increases to a neutral posture to now a rate cut.”

Markets continue to dip.

2:48 p.m.

Powell says the 25 basis point cut is not the beginning of a “lengthy cutting cycle.”

"That's not what we're seeing now,” Powell says.

The Dow, which is already down over 200 points from where it was when the press conference began, begins accelerating downward over the next five minutes before bouncing back and recuperating some losses. At its lowest point, the Dow was more than 400 points off of where it was when Powell stepped up to the podium.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumps up to 2.07% but starts coming back down.

2:57 p.m.

Powell says the decision to cut rates and end the balance sheet unwind, as President Donald Trump has called for, had nothing to do with political pressure.

“We never take into account political considerations there’s no place in our discussions for that. We also don’t conduct monetary policy in order to prove our independence.”

On the decision to end the balance sheet normalization process, Powell said it was a “matter of simplicity and consistency, really nothing more to it than that.” Some speculated ahead of the meeting that the Fed might try to avoid out-of-sync monetary policy actions by pre-emptively ending its quantitative tightening process to align with its efforts to also ease rates.

3:03 p.m.

Powell clarifies earlier commentary on where the Fed goes on rates.

“Let me be clear, I said it’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts. I didn’t say it’s just one or anything like that. I said when you think about rate-cutting cycles they go on a long time. The committee is not seeing that, not seeing us in that place. You would do that if you saw real economic weakness and you thought the federal funds needed to be cut a lot. That’s not what we’re seeing.”

Markets continue bouncing back, and are now down only about 200 points compared to where it was about 30 minutes earlier. The 10-year Treasury comes back down to around 2.02%.

3:09 p.m.

Powell says the insurance cut could get the economy to good enough place where the Fed hikes again.

“In other cycles, the Fed wound up raising rates again after a mid-cycle adjustment. Again I’m not predicting that but I don’t think we know that we we’ll have less ammo because of these things,” Powell said.

3:13 p.m.

Powell responds to a Yahoo Finance question on communicating downside risks against the Fed’s description of the U.S. outlook as “positive.”

“There really isn’t anything in the U.S. economy that presents a prominent near term risk to the U.S. economy. As I mentioned, there’s no segment or sector that’s really boiling over or overheating. Within the economy it’s healthy so I would say that. Downside risks are really coming from abroad, of course we are concerned about low inflation.”

3:15 p.m.

Powell concludes press conference. Dow hovers around 26,900.

4:00 p.m.

Closing bell rings and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ends the day down over 300 points to 26,864.27, a 1.23% decline. The S&P 500 had fallen 1.09% to 2,980.38 and the NASDAQ Composite had lost 1.19% to 8,175.42.

The spread between the two-year and the ten-year Treasuries narrows to 13 basis points. The day before, the spread was 21 basis points.

4:41 p.m.

President Trump tweets that markets would have preferred a more “aggressive rate-cutting cycle,” saying Powell disappointed “as usual.”

The Fed’s next policy-setting meeting will be on September 18.

Brian Cheung is a reporter covering the banking industry and the intersection of finance and policy for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on Twitter @bcheungz.

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-moves-on-federal-reserve-rate-decision-cut-123544830.html

2019-08-01 12:35:00Z
CBMiX2h0dHBzOi8vZmluYW5jZS55YWhvby5jb20vbmV3cy9tYXJrZXQtbW92ZXMtb24tZmVkZXJhbC1yZXNlcnZlLXJhdGUtZGVjaXNpb24tY3V0LTEyMzU0NDgzMC5odG1s0gFnaHR0cHM6Ly9maW5hbmNlLnlhaG9vLmNvbS9hbXBodG1sL25ld3MvbWFya2V0LW1vdmVzLW9uLWZlZGVyYWwtcmVzZXJ2ZS1yYXRlLWRlY2lzaW9uLWN1dC0xMjM1NDQ4MzAuaHRtbA

Goldman Sachs: One more rate cut and then the Fed is done - CNBC

Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, July 31, 2019.

Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

After one more interest rate cut the Federal Reserve will be finished cutting rates, according to Goldman Sachs.

The firm estimates an 80% probability of another rate cut this year to wrap up the Fed's easing cycle.

"[Powell's] language we see as consistent with our expectation that easing will end with a second 25bp cut," said Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius in a note to clients following Wednesday's FOMC meeting.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve appeased the markets by cutting the target range for its overnight lending rate 25 basis points, to 2% to 2.25%. This marked the first rate cut since the start of the financial recession more than a decade ago. The major indices sold-off and bond yields rose after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference, where he watered down the chances of more rate cuts in the future.

Powell's comments were received as hawkish given that markets priced in a much deeper cutting cycle, said Hatzius. Although Powell did not rule out further rate cuts, his comments that the Fed was making a "midcycle adjustment " and was not in a longer-term rate cutting mode panicked investors.

Hatzius said he sees a 55% chance of 25 basis point cut in September, a 5% chance of a 50 basis point cut, and a 40% chance of no cut.

While Hatzius expects a second cut at the September central bank meeting, he continues "to see little need for it."

"Uncertainty is not actually particularly high and capex expectations are not particularly depressed," said Hatzius.

U.S. stock index futures rose on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointing to a gain of more than 60 points at the open. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also indicated a positive open.

— with reporting from CNBC's Michael Bloom

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/goldman-sachs-one-more-rate-cut-and-then-the-fed-is-done.html

2019-08-01 12:33:30Z
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Futures edge higher as focus shifts from Fed to earnings - Reuters

(Reuters) - U.S. stock futures bounced on Thursday, a day after the S&P 500 and Dow saw their worst day since May, as focus shifted from the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on further interest rate cuts to corporate earnings, which have been robust.

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., July 31, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

The U.S. central bank reduced borrowing costs by a widely-expected quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a series of further cuts was unlikely, leading to a sharp selloff.

Despite that, all three major indexes posted their second straight monthly gains in July, closing the book on a month in which the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq reached fresh record highs.

“It was always going to be a tough job for the Fed to be as dovish as stock markets hoped. The 25 bps cut was a non-event,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, in a note.

“With the Fed out of the way there is a chance that we can all get back to focusing on earnings and how earnings season continues to paint a broadly positive picture.”

Almost three weeks through earnings, reports so far have been strong. Of the 296 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported second-quarter earnings, 74.7% have beaten Street estimates for profit, according to Refinitiv data.

Shares of Verizon Communications Inc (VZ.N) rose 1.3% in premarket trading after wireless carrier beat second-quarter consensus estimates for additions of net new phone subscribers who pay a monthly bill.

At 7:20 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis 1YMcv1 were up 46 points, or 0.17%. S&P 500 e-minis EScv1 were up 3.5 points, or 0.12% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQcv1 were up 15.25 points, or 0.19%.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O) plunged 6.8% after the chipmaker’s quarterly revenue and profit forecast fell short of Wall Street targets, hurt by Huawei Technologies Co Ltd’s [HWT.UL] strong gains in the Chinese smartphone market.

Fitbit Inc (FIT.N) tumbled 17.4% after the wearable device maker cut its 2019 revenue forecast blaming disappointing sales of its newly launched cheapest smartwatch Versa Lite.

On the macro front, the Institute for Supply Management’s index of national factory activity, due at 10 a.m. EDT, will likely show a reading of 52.0 in July from 51.7 in June.

This will follow IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes final reading for the month July, due 9:45 a.m. EDT.

Factory activity contracted across Asia and Europe in July, fuelling worries a prolonged U.S.-China trade war and an economic slowdown could tilt the world toward recession, which central banks would have to fight with depleted ammunition.

Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/futures-edge-higher-as-focus-shifts-from-fed-to-earnings-idUSKCN1UR4JA

2019-08-01 12:18:00Z
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Powell is 'confusing' the markets about Fed intentions, but a new cut is expected - CNBC

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a news conference following the Federal Reserve's two-day Federal Open Market Committee Meeting in Washington, July 31, 2019.

Sarah Silbiger | Reuters

Chairman Jerome Powell's comments after the Fed's expected rate cut are seen as confusing, and market pros say monetary policy has become muddled.

The bottom line is the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates again, but possibly not as much as markets had been geared up for.

The Fed sliced a quarter point off the fed funds target rate range Wednesday, citing "global developments" and "muted inflation." The 2 p.m. ET statement was viewed as neutral by the market with no set promise of further interest rate cuts. The market had been braced for a very dovish message, expecting the Fed to leave the door wide open and leaning more explicitly toward further interest rate cuts, so it was already somewhat disappointed.

But once Powell spoke about a half hour later, the markets convulsed, with bond yields spiking and stocks selling off into the close. His comments that the Fed was making a "midcycle adjustment " and was not in a longer-term rate cutting mode ricocheted through the markets, where some investors had been positioned for at least two more cuts this year alone. Powell did not rule out further rate cuts.

"We find Powell confusing. I think this is an ongoing struggle with this Fed and communications. The point is you now have to look at a September cut as more of a 50/50 probability," said John Briggs, head of strategy at NatWest Markets.

'Muddled message'

Stocks plunged, with the Dow down 333 points in its worst day since May. Treasury yields were on a roller coaster with the 2-year yield, which most reflects Fed policy, spiking as high as 1.96%, off an early low of 1.79% prior to the Fed statement.

"It was a very confusing and muddled message, and I don't think that Powell delivered clear direction for what the near-term path of additional Fed easing will be, and I think that's why the market reacted negatively," said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short rate strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The Fed had set itself up with the difficult task of explaining a so-called insurance cut. That's a rate cut intended to head off economic weakness before it hits. The Fed's problem, in part, is that it was making the cut, just as some economic data has been improving. So while acknowledging the improvement , it also was forced to emphasize that it's real worries are sluggish inflation, potential trade war impacts and the weaker global economy.

Two Fed presidents, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Kansas City Fed President Esther George, objected on the basis that a cut was not warranted, and that also confused markets about future policy.

"The market was looking for more cuts and the markets now are very uncertain. I don't think that's helpful for what the Fed wants to achieve. I think the Fed wants to extend the expansion," Cabana said, adding that the Fed statement was much more clear than Powell. He now expects other Fed officials to attempt to clarify the Fed position.

For now, Cabana said he will stay focused on the Fed's statement, which clearly said the Fed is concerned about the implications of global developments and muted inflationary pressure. "Neither of those things are going to change any time soon," he said, noting Powell did not even mention the risks around Brexit, the U.K.'s exit from the European Union, by the end of October.

September meeting

J.P. Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said the Fed may keep its focus on trade and global issues, but its next decisions may actually be made based more on U.S. economic data. The Fed had also added a level of confusion into markets when it pivoted recently, from its normal "data dependence" on the U.S. economy to concerns of more global issues.

"Today's Fed events may have given risk markets a little indigestion, but they also bought the Fed a little more flexibility going into the next FOMC meeting," he wrote. "We still look for one more easing in September, and continue to believe that, unlike today's meeting, the call on September depends on all of the data. While today's move was motivated by global growth, trade policy and inflation developments, we expect September's decision will also depend on domestic growth developments." 

The Fed statement also said the Fed was looking to sustain the economic expansion, which it has stated before. Powell repeated that in his opening remarks but he was also positive on the outlook when he said trade tensions had been boiling over but were now "simmering."

"He delivered no consistent message. He talked from both sides of his mouth, and the market didn't know what to make of it," said Cabana.

How many cuts?

Cabana said the futures market had been pricing in 70 basis points of easing for the year, including the 25 basis point cut Wednesday. The market expectations had fallen to 37 basis points of cuts for this year, as of Wednesday afternoon, or the equivalent of about one and a half more cuts, rather than closer to two.

"It's confusing," said Wells Fargo director, rates strategy Michael Schumacher. "The market was pretty bulled up and priced in quite a bit of rate cutting over the next year and a half, and now that has to come out."

Schumacher said investors were focused on the length of the easing cycle, and Powell's response was confusing because he clearly made it a shorter-term event.

"He mentioned it a couple times. It's not like he said it once and goofed and came back to it. So it became hawkish," said Schumacher. The Fed did not release any new projections at the July meeting, since it releases those forecasts quarterly, so the market was set up to glean any new information from the Fed chief.

"It was pretty evident when you think about this particular meeting was going to be about Powell," said Schumacher.

Briggs said he still expects the Fed to cut rates.

"If the economy stays the same and prices go down and anything on his list continues to be a risk, I think they will cut, too," said Briggs. "I tend to think the global outlook is not that great. Germany is going to be a mess for a while. China has issues. The British economy is heading into Brexit and sterling is falling."

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer with Bleakley Advisory Group, said Powell also confused the market when he spoke about the Fed helping financial conditions, when it shifted from a rate-hiking policy at the end of last year, to a pause and now to a rate cut.

"He was totally confusing. They're winging it. And nothing was more clear. You can see the circularity of the problem they're in," he said. "They're talking about easier financial conditions in the first half of the year that was able to sustain the recovery.".

So by not promising more easing, the Fed could now create shaky market conditions and could find itself taking an easier stance to appease markets, creating a negative feedback loop.

"He's in quicksand," said Boockvar. "This is the problem the Fed has put themselves into. They are chasing the tail of the market and the market is the master and the Fed is now the servant."

It wasn't just markets that were disappointed with the Fed. President Donald Trump, who had called for a large rate cut, tweeted that the Fed's rate cut was disappointing and "Powell let us down."

"It means the pressure is probably not going to subside from Trump, and we're still going to be in a position where we have a lot of political interference," said Cabana.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/powell-confused-markets-on-interest-rates-but-fed-probably-cuts-again.html

2019-08-01 11:31:08Z
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