OPEC allies agree to extend supply cuts in a bid to support oil prices - CNBC

Secretary General of OPEC, Mohammed Barkindo (R), Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak (L), Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, Khalid Al-Falih (C) hold a joint press conference during the 173rd Ordinary Meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, Austria on November 30, 2017.

Omar Marques | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Russia and nine other non-OPEC producers agreed to a nine-month rollover of supply cuts on Tuesday, ratifying a policy designed to prop up oil prices amid a weakening global economy.

It comes less than 24 hours after energy ministers from the world's most powerful oil-producing nations thrashed out a deal to restrict the amount of crude flowing into the global market.

OPEC reached a deal to extend production cuts until March 2020 on Monday. The Middle East-dominated producer group was able to overcome their differences after five hours of negotiating in Vienna.

International benchmark Brent crude traded at $64.82 Tuesday lunchtime, down around 0.4%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $58.86, approximately 0.3% lower.

The energy alliance between OPEC and non-OPEC partners, sometimes referred to as OPEC+, has been reducing oil output since 2017.

The policy is designed to prevent prices from sliding amid soaring production from the U.S. — which has become the world's top producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia. The cuts are running at a volume of about 1.2 million barrels per day.

Ahead of the non-OPEC meeting on Tuesday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih had said he was 100% confident of an OPEC+ deal.

The U.S. is not a member of OPEC, nor is it participating in the supply pact. Washington has demanded Riyadh pump more oil to compensate for lower exports from Iran after slapping fresh sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear program. However, the U.S. has also ratcheted up its oil production in recent years.

President Donald Trump is likely to be irritated by an extended period of OPEC-led supply cuts, after repeatedly calling on Saudi Arabia to supply more oil and help reduce prices at the pump.

Brent crude has climbed more than 25% so far this year, after the White House tightened economic sanctions against OPEC members Iran and Venezuela, slashing their exports.

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2019-07-02 10:22:28Z
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Li Keqiang, Chinese Premier, Makes a Modest Peace Offering on Trade - The New York Times

DALIAN, China — A top Chinese leader said on Tuesday that his country would cut tariffs and loosen limits on foreign investment, two measures that could ease trade tensions somewhat with the United States.

Speaking in the Chinese port city of Dalian at a meeting of the World Economic Forum, Premier Li Keqiang, China’s No. 2 official, appeared to offer a small olive branch to the Trump administration. He said China would allow foreign financial services companies into its market a year earlier than previously promised and that it would rewrite many rules on foreign investment.

“We will move up the lifting of foreign capital limits in securities, futures and life insurance, from 2021 to 2020,” Mr. Li said, prompting a burst of applause from a crowd that appeared to include many bankers and others in finance. “This shows China’s commitment to opening up.”

By themselves, changes to foreign investment laws are unlikely to satisfy the Trump administration, but they might be a first step toward improving relations.

Trade negotiations between the United States and China collapsed in early May, mainly because Chinese negotiators essentially withdrew previous offers to amend many of the country’s laws. The prospect of rewriting Chinese legislation in response to the demands of a foreign power had stirred a nationalistic backlash within the Chinese leadership and civil service.

President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agreed at a meeting on Saturday during the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan, that they would restart trade talks. But neither side made any mention of returning the negotiations to where they had been in early May, nor did they raise the fraught issue of whether China would rewrite its laws.

China’s legislature approved a new legal code for foreign investment in March, giving the government a face-saving way to justify changes in other laws without appearing to acquiesce to American pressure. Over the weekend, China also slightly trimmed various longstanding restrictions on foreign investment in some industries. But foreign businesses have consistently said that changes on such a small scale would not be enough.

Bigger obstacles stand in the way of a lasting peace on trade. The Trump administration has also focused on persuading China to curtail lavish government subsidies to exporters and to companies that want to rival foreign firms in sectors like commercial aircraft, semiconductors and electric cars.

The Trump administration contends that these policies create unfair, government-backed competitors for American companies and workers. China has resisted putting limits on subsidies, which it regards as having been highly successful in building up its huge industries.

China’s move on foreign financial services would allow international securities firms and insurers to control brokerages and other businesses in China. Currently, foreign firms are allowed only partial stakes. China pledged a year and a half ago to allow foreign firms more leeway.

Mr. Li gave no details about plans to lower tariffs, though China has been reducing them overall in recent months, even as it was hitting the United States with retaliatory tariffs during their trade war.

Tim Stratford, a former American trade official who is now the chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, expressed cautious optimism after Mr. Li’s speech that the Chinese government might make substantive changes. “He’s the head of a very large government and the challenge is to transmit that vision through the whole government,” he said.

But Mr. Stratford noted that China had lost a World Trade Organization legal case in 2012, after not following through on a commitment it made when it joined the W.T.O. in 2001 to open its market to foreign credit cards. China’s civil service is still working on regulations to let them in.

Mr. Li also made a carefully hedged promise that China would maintain the overall stability of its currency, the renminbi, and would not seek to devalue it so as to gain a competitive advantage in trade.

If the renminbi’s value declines against the dollar, that would make Chinese exports cheaper in terms of dollars and more competitive overseas, while making imports of foreign goods more expensive and less competitive within China. The United States Treasury has been putting pressure on China for many years not to devalue its currency, fearing the effects on trade competition as well as disruption of financial stability in China and some of its Asian neighbors.

But on Sunday, President Trump unexpectedly praised a modest decline in the value of the renminbi last year. He noted that the weakening of the renminbi then had offset some of the costs of his tariffs on Chinese goods for American consumers.

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2019-07-02 10:08:49Z
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China's second-in-command: We're building an even playing field for foreign firms - CNBC

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang addresses a press conference on Nov. 28, 2017.

Attila Kisbenedek | AFP | Getty Images

DALIAN — Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on Tuesday pledged to an assembly of global business leaders and government representatives that Beijing will push to create an equal playing field in the country for all companies.

As American and Chinese negotiators begin a renewed push at a trade deal, that rhetoric appeared to address many of the U.S. complaints about unfair treatment for foreign firms that lie at the heart of the dispute. Still, the extent to which China's leadership will act on its promises of economic freedoms remains the important question.

"Right now we need to let state-owned enterprises, privately owned enterprises and foreign-invested companies, as long as they are registered in China, to be recognized as Chinese companies, all treated equally," Li said in his address at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China.

Li gave the example of how China's plans for nearly 2 trillion yuan ($300 billion) in tax and fee cuts this year should be applied to all three categories of businesses, according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.

American and other foreign companies have long complained that the Chinese government gives preferential treatment to home-grown businesses, especially conglomerates owned by the state. Despite claims of "reform and opening up" over the last four decades, Beijing has often required foreign companies to form joint ventures with Chinese entities — and allegedly coerced them to share valuable technology — in order to operate in the country. China's privately run businesses, which contribute to the majority of jobs and growth in China, have also complained of unequal access to financing compared with state-run enterprises.

Li did not comment or respond directly to a question on the U.S.-China trade tensions on Tuesday.

His remarks came on the heels of U.S. President Donald Trump's and Chinese President Xi Jinping's agreement this past weekend to proceed with trade talks. Negotiations had taken a turn for the worse in early May, but at their meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, the two leaders said they would resume looking for a way forward.

"The business community wants a productive relationship with China," Charles Freeman, senior vice president for Asia at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said in a phone interview with CNBC on Monday. "We think that (a) good commercial relationship is fundamental to the health of the relationship. Overall, (regarding Saturday's temporary truce), it's a bit of a feel good, it's a little lack of detail. But we like the tenor."

Trade tensions between the world's two largest economies have lasted for more than a year. Both countries have levied tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of goods from the other. The U.S. has also put tech firm Huawei on a blacklist that effectively prevents American companies from selling to the Chinese telecommunications giant. Trump said Saturday he would consider allowing sales to the company, and said the U.S. would hold off on tariffs on Chinese goods.

In his remarks on Tuesday, Li laid out a list of ways in which he claimed China is opening or plans to open its economy to more foreign participation. Those included:

• Lifting restrictions on foreign ownership of securities, futures and life insurance firms by 2020, a year earlier than previously planned.
• Opening the manufacturing sector to greater foreign investment, including easing foreign equity restrictions in the auto industry.
• Gradually reducing the industries that are off-limits to foreign investment.

Li added during a Tuesday afternoon session with business executives and reporters that foreign-invested companies registered in China can also benefit from government measures to support local innovation. If the businesses find they are unable to take advantage of those policies, Li said the companies can file complaints.

During his Tuesday morning address, the Chinese leader did not emphasize economic challenges as much as he had to a domestic audience during the annual gathering of the National People's Congress in March. In front of the World Economic Forum, Li maintained that the country is on track to reach its target of between 6% and 6.5% in economic growth for the year. That would still fall below last year's 6.6% rate, which was itself the slowest growth since 1990.

On the economic policy front, Li said China will not engage in competitive devaluation of its currency, or flood its economy with extreme stimulus despite pressure on growth. Both of those potential actions had been a concern of markets and would have indicated significant fears of an economic slide among Beijing's decision makers.

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2019-07-02 05:40:34Z
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Oil price 'could easily be $75' if trade truce boosts demand, expert says - CNBC

Journalists interview oil Ministers on the sidelines of the 176th meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) conference and the 6th meeting of the OPEC and non-OPEC countries on July 1, 2019 in Vienna, Austria.

JOE KLAMAR | AFP | Getty Images

The success, or failure, of trade talks between the U.S. and China will be a decisive factor in the oil price outlook this year, despite OPEC's decision to extend production cuts, oil market expert Amrita Sen told CNBC on Tuesday.

"I know (Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Khalid) Al Falih said that the second-half of the year (demand) outlook looks better but so much depends on the trade deal, on the truce between the U.S. and China, and global demand has slowed down considerably," Sen who is a chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects told CNBC Tuesday.

"China (demand for oil) hasn't collapsed at all, it's still growing slower, but it's just that lack of confidence, companies have just stopped investing and placing orders and we've seen very weak numbers out of other parts of Asia and Europe as well," she added.

Sen hoped that a "truce" between the U.S. and China on its trade dispute reached at the weekend by President Trump and President Xi, in which they agreed to hold off on any new trade tariffs on each other's imports while trade talks resume, could restore confidence that would fuel oil demand.

"But if that doesn't come back quickly, all of the second half (of 2019) and into 2020 things will be weak," Sen told CNBC's Dan Murphy in Vienna, where oil producing group OPEC and its non-member allies like Russia are meeting currently.

A potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year and the incentive to forge strong economic growth in the U.S., ahead of the 2020 presidential election, could provide extra impetus for oil market demand, Sen said.

"There will be some momentum to solve some of these trade wars. If demand is good I think oil prices have a lot of upside here and into next year," she said. "If demand growth is even 1 million barrels per day I think we could easily be $75 (the price per barrel) if not slightly higher because the physical crude market is still tight."

In its last June monthly report, OPEC predicted oil demand growth to rise by 1.14 million barrels per day in 2019. The majority of oil demand growth is projected to come from India, followed by China.

Muted reaction

Oil prices slipped despite OPEC's decision Monday to extend supply cuts to March 2020 in a bid to support oil prices amid a weakening global economy.

Crude rose more than 1% in Monday's session on OPEC's decision but has since pared gains. Markets experienced a more muted reaction given that a supply cut had already been flagged by the likes of Saudi Arabia at last weekend's Group of Twenty (G-20) meeting in Japan, taking out what Sen described as the "surprise element" for the market.

Oil prices were still buoyant Tuesday morning, benchmark Brent crude futures trading at $65.22 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $59.12.

Concerns over the demand outlook amid uncertainty over global trade relations, and how those are impacting the international growth outlook, were seen as weighing on sentiment. Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister struck an optimistic tone on the demand for oil, despite weaker global economic conditions.

"I think we've seen good demand numbers and we've seen the U.S. pickup," Khalid al-Falih told reporters at the OPEC meeting in Vienna on Monday.

"I think there have been things like weather-related issues, some of the industrial activity has pulled back temporarily as a result of the trade dispute between China and the U.S. I'm optimistic that there is a lot of goodwill between the U.S. and China and that will remove restraints on industrial productivity," he said.

OPEC is scheduled to meet on Tuesday with Russia and other producers that have joined it in a production cut agreement to discuss the supply cuts. Non-OPEC members like Russia have to endorse the extension of the supply cut (currently at around 1.2 million barrels a day).

The so-called "OPEC+" alliance of 24 producers agreed in late 2016 to cut production in order to put a floor under low oil prices that had resulted from a glut of supply, particularly due to increased U.S. shale output, and lackluster demand.

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2019-07-02 07:49:36Z
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China's second-in-command: We're building an even playing field for foreign firms - CNBC

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang addresses a press conference on Nov. 28, 2017.

Attila Kisbenedek | AFP | Getty Images

DALIAN — Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on Tuesday pledged to an assembly of global business leaders and government representatives that Beijing will push to create an equal playing field in the country for all companies.

As American and Chinese negotiators begin a renewed push at a trade deal, that rhetoric appeared to address many of the U.S. complaints about unfair treatment for foreign firms that lie at the heart of the dispute. Still, the extent to which China's leadership will act on its promises of economic freedoms remains the important question.

"Right now we need to let state-owned enterprises, privately owned enterprises and foreign-invested companies, as long as they are registered in China, to be recognized as Chinese companies, all treated equally," Li said in his address at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China.

Li gave the example of how China's plans for nearly 2 trillion yuan ($300 billion) in tax and fee cuts this year should be applied to all three categories of businesses, according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.

American and other foreign companies have long complained that the Chinese government gives preferential treatment to home-grown businesses, especially conglomerates owned by the state. Despite claims of "reform and opening up" over the last four decades, Beijing has often required foreign companies to form joint ventures with Chinese entities — and allegedly coerced them to share valuable technology — in order to operate in the country. China's privately run businesses, which contribute to the majority of jobs and growth in China, have also complained of unequal access to financing compared with state-run enterprises.

Li did not comment or respond directly to a question on the U.S.-China trade tensions on Tuesday.

His remarks came on the heels of U.S. President Donald Trump's and Chinese President Xi Jinping's agreement this past weekend to proceed with trade talks. Negotiations had taken a turn for the worse in early May, but at their meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, the two leaders said they would resume looking for a way forward.

"The business community wants a productive relationship with China," Charles Freeman, senior vice president for Asia at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said in a phone interview with CNBC on Monday. "We think that (a) good commercial relationship is fundamental to the health of the relationship. Overall, (regarding Saturday's temporary truce), it's a bit of a feel good, it's a little lack of detail. But we like the tenor."

Trade tensions between the world's two largest economies have lasted for more than a year. Both countries have levied tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of goods from the other. The U.S. has also put tech firm Huawei on a blacklist that effectively prevents American companies from selling to the Chinese telecommunications giant. Trump said Saturday he would consider allowing sales to the company, and said the U.S. would hold off on tariffs on Chinese goods.

In his remarks on Tuesday, Li laid out a list of ways in which he claimed China is opening or plans to open its economy to more foreign participation. Those included:

• Lifting restrictions on foreign ownership of securities, futures and life insurance firms by 2020, a year earlier than previously planned.
• Opening the manufacturing sector to greater foreign investment, including easing foreign equity restrictions in the auto industry.
• Gradually reducing the industries that are off-limits to foreign investment.

Li added during a Tuesday afternoon session with business executives and reporters that foreign-invested companies registered in China can also benefit from government measures to support local innovation. If the businesses find they are unable to take advantage of those policies, Li said the companies can file complaints.

During his Tuesday morning address, the Chinese leader did not emphasize economic challenges as much as he had to a domestic audience during the annual gathering of the National People's Congress in March. In front of the World Economic Forum, Li maintained that the country is on track to reach its target of between 6% and 6.5% in economic growth for the year. That would still fall below last year's 6.6% rate, which was itself the slowest growth since 1990.

On the economic policy front, Li said China will not engage in competitive devaluation of its currency, or flood its economy with extreme stimulus despite pressure on growth. Both of those potential actions had been a concern of markets and would have indicated significant fears of an economic slide among Beijing's decision makers.

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2019-07-02 05:34:37Z
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average Hit a New High. Time to Talk Recession. - Barron's

Photograph by Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Stocks were hitting news highs after U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a trade cease-fire. Unfortunately, the agreement might have come too late to keep the U.S. from slipping into recession.

Yes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average just traded at a new high. So did the S&P 500. But there were other data points Monday that point in the opposite direction. The ISM manufacturing index fell to 51.7 in June. While that wasn’t as low as feared or below the 50-level that would indicate slowing industrial activity, it was still the weakest reading since 2016. The forward-looking new-orders component, however, fell to 50.

“Overall, this report is probably not enough to move the needle much in either direction on Fed rate cuts,” according to a report from research firm Capital Economics. “But with global demand set to remain subdued, and the tariff truce agreed at the G20 summit likely to prove temporary, we expect U.S. manufacturing activity to remain weak in the second half of this year.”

Weak, obviously, is different than slowing. Yet any time the economy slows, there is a risk of recession, which is one reason the difference between the yields on the 10-year Treasury and the three-month bill has turned negative. That is known as a yield-curve inversion, and research has shown that if it lasts long enough, it is a reliable predictor of a recession. The Cleveland Fed recession model, which is based on that yield curve, is predicting a 37.8% chance of a slowdown in one year.

A similar model from the New York Fed only shows a 29.6% chance, but that’s not necessarily good news. Since 1960, any reading over 30% has led to a recession, according to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “The upshot is the New York Fed Probability of Recession in 12 Months Ahead, a model that uses leading indicators and economic variables that tend to move before changes in the economy, has neared the 30% threshold that has reliably predicted past economic downturns,” she writes. “With the deterioration in the June data, we think the model’s next report will show the economy continued to weaken.”

Read more: Don’t Get Too Excited About This Trade War Truce

The market doesn’t seem too sure of itself, either. The major indexes were up more than 1% in early trading, but despite hitting new highs, the Dow and the S&P 500 gave back some of those gains.

Let’s just say that kind of weakness after such a strong opening isn’t the type of trading that builds confidence in further gains.

Write to Ben Levisohn at Ben.Levisohn@barrons.com

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2019-07-02 01:40:00Z
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Cramer says Trump's Huawei reversal may indicate 'something afoot' in China trade talks - CNBC

CNBC's Jim Cramer speculated on Monday that there may be something going on for President Donald Trump to have eased restrictions on Huawei while the U.S. and China reengage in talks to end their trade war.

As part of Saturday's trade truce with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit in Japan, Trump agreed to allow Chinese tech giant Huawei to purchase some U.S. commercial products.

Not even two months ago, the Trump administration effectively blacklisted Huawei from doing business in the U.S., citing national security concerns.

"For the president to turn around like this, it must have meant there is something afoot," Cramer said on "Squawk on the Street. " "Much bigger than anyone realizes," he added.

People who don't believe something is "afoot," Cramer said, think "the president got had."

"The president did feel very 'had' after Buenos Aires," Cramer said, referring to the G-20 summit in Argentina in December, when the two leaders had agreed to a 90-day tariff escalation ceasefire. "It is hard for me to believe that he's going to let himself be had this time."

Cramer said there had been a strong belief that Trump would place additional tariffs on Chinese goods after Saturday's meeting with Xi and continue to restrict U.S. businesses from selling to Huawei.

"The president's people are shocked," Cramer added. "There was both the concessions and also the trip to North Korea," he said of the impromptu trip to meet leader Kim Jong Un.

However, top White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow on Sunday defended Trump's Huawei move, adding the blacklist was still in place.

"This is not a general amnesty," Kudlow said in an interview with Fox News. "Huawei will remain on the so-called entity list where there are serious export controls and in national security inferences or suggestions there won't be any licenses."

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2019-07-01 15:55:38Z
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